Macro and capital markets - LaSalle Investment Management

Flutter exceeds expectations as third quarter continues global pledge

In recent years, one of the areas we value in real estate investment is logistics. Our research, which is trying to determine the investment opportunity in a prime location, has focused on this field. However, with uncertainties such as energy prices and the interruption of supply chains continued, cost uncertainty is high for logistics providers throughout the continent.

However, the location is more important than ever because it is an important variable that logistics can control. By optimizing location selection, you can minimize the exposure to other risks and protect the supply chain.

Radar's 2024 path to distribution score

LaSalle's first distribution score card focuses on geography in the European logistics market. With this innovative and detailed new research, it is possible to compare logistics bases at micros, markets, countries, and Pan European levels. You can flexibly evaluate the opportunity. As an investor in this sector, this new insight on the most recovering logistics market in Europe is useful for portfolio configuration and asset management.

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This article was published in the September 2024 issue of Pele.

Isabel Brennan in LaSalle has discussed the status of real estate dead throughout the United States, along with the colleagues of major Alternative Credit Providers throughout the United States.

Private render focuses on real estate, activity has become active

While the regulations have changed, the banks are likely to continue their bystanders, and the participants of the U. S. government bond round table are expecting an exposure to invest in both refinancing and new acquisitions. Stuart Watson says.

During the past year and a half, the rising interest rates, uncertainty about real estate value, and questions about constant shifts in demand for specific asset classes have been suppressed. On the other hand, both Money Center Bank and the regional bank have been reducing their activities as concerns about the soundness of balance sheets and strengthening capital regulations aimed at reducing fluid risks.

This article was published in the August 2024 issue of IPE Real Assets. In recent years, one of the areas we value in real estate investment is logistics. Our research, which is trying to determine the investment opportunity in a prime location, has focused on this field. However, with uncertainties such as energy prices and the interruption of supply chains continued, cost uncertainty is high for logistics providers throughout the continent.

Radar's 2024 path to distribution score

This article was published in the September 2024 issue of Pele.

Isabel Brennan in LaSalle has discussed the status of real estate dead throughout the United States, along with the colleagues of major Alternative Credit Providers throughout the United States.

Private render focuses on real estate, activity has become active

While the regulations have changed, the banks are likely to continue their bystanders, and the participants of the U. S. government bond round table are expecting an exposure to invest in both refinancing and new acquisitions. Stuart Watson says.
During the past year and a half, the rising interest rates, uncertainty about real estate value, and questions about constant shifts in demand for specific asset classes have been suppressed. On the other hand, both Money Center Bank and the regional bank have been reducing their activities as concerns about the soundness of balance sheets and strengthening capital regulations aimed at reducing fluid risks.
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This article was published in the August 2024 issue of IPE Real Assets. In recent years, one of the areas we value in real estate investment is logistics. Our research, which is trying to determine the investment opportunity in a prime location, has focused on this field. However, with uncertainties such as energy prices and the interruption of supply chains continued, cost uncertainty is high for logistics providers throughout the continent.

Radar's 2024 path to distribution score

This article was published in the September 2024 issue of Pele.

Isabel Brennan in LaSalle has discussed the status of real estate dead throughout the United States, along with the colleagues of major Alternative Credit Providers throughout the United States.

This article was published in the August 2024 issue of IPE Real Assets.

With the strength of regulations, and the number of investors who incorporate sustainable goals into investment, it is becoming commonplace to incorporate green goals into capita l-configured liabilities. As a result, the bond markets throughout Europe are becoming a tw o-layer structure, and while the overall loan amount is decreasing, more environmentally friendly loans are being issued.

In this guest article of IPE REAL ASETS, Dave White discusses how to do these loans throughout Europe, and how the lenders and investors are responding to this situation. I am.

Brian Clinkyk, Jen Wigman, and Dominik Silman argue about the world's real estate bond market.

While traditional banks are willing to supply commercial real estate loans, other renders, including investment management companies like LaSal, have entered to fill the fund raising gap. As a result, institutional investors have become more interested in real estate dead.

But what is an attractive investment in real estate dead? The second largest real estate date among the real estate's "four quadrants" is a great opportunity in the United States and Europe, worth about $ 4. 55 trillion. Real estate bonds have historically not only low correlation with other assets, but also produced returns after competitive risk adjustment.

Interest rates – Still no map to the trail

In our latest research, such investment cases are divided into three divisions:

Location of real estate bonds in institutional investors' portfolios,

Role of no n-bank loan

Today's Det Oppoch i-only, which uses the gaps and attractive price settings of dead finance.

As important notices and disclaimers regulations have been strengthened, and more investors incorporate sustainable goals into investment, it is becoming commonplace to incorporate green goals into liabilities in capital. As a result, the bond markets throughout Europe are becoming a tw o-layer structure, and while the overall loan amount is decreasing, more environmentally friendly loans are being issued.

Macro – Deciphering divergence

In this guest article of IPE REAL ASETS, Dave White discusses how to do these loans throughout Europe, and how the lenders and investors are responding to this situation. I am.

Brian Clinkyk, Jen Wigman, and Dominik Silman argue about the world's real estate bond market.

Renewed cyclicality — Ride the (supply) wave

In our latest research, such investment cases are divided into three divisions:

Location of real estate bonds in institutional investors' portfolios,

Role of no n-bank loan

Today's Det Oppoch i-only, which uses the gaps and attractive price settings of dead finance.

As important notices and disclaimers regulations have been strengthened, and more investors are incorporating sustainable goals into investment, it is becoming commonplace to incorporate green goals into liabilities in capital configuration. As a result, the bond markets throughout Europe are becoming a tw o-layer structure, and while the overall loan amount is decreasing, more environmentally friendly loans are being issued.

The next chapters in secular change

In this guest article of IPE REAL ASETS, Dave White discusses how to do these loans throughout Europe, and how the lenders and investors are responding to this situation. I am.

Brian Clinkyk, Jen Wigman, and Dominik Silman argue about the world's real estate bond market.

While traditional banks are willing to supply commercial real estate loans, other renders, including investment management companies like LaSal, have entered to fill the fund raising gap. As a result, institutional investors have become more interested in real estate dead.

But what is an attractive investment in real estate dead? The second largest real estate date among the real estate's "four quadrants" is a great opportunity in the United States and Europe, worth about $ 4. 55 trillion. Real estate bonds have historically not only low correlation with other assets, but also produced returns after competitive risk adjustment.

In our latest research, such investment cases are divided into three divisions:

Don’t wait for the “all clear”

Location of real estate bonds in institutional investors' portfolios,

Role of no n-bank loan

LOOKING AHEAD >

Today's Det Oppoch i-only, which uses the gaps and attractive price settings of dead finance.
Important news and disclaimer
This document does not solicit the trading of securities or investment products that Lasal Investment Management (including the global investment advisory partner, hereinafter referred to as "Lasal"). This document was created unrelated to the recipient's specific investment purpose, financial status, or specific needs, and in any case, this material itself is not intended to be an investment advice. 。 The discussions described in this book are for information only, and may not make up for investment advice, but may be modified, complemented, and changed without notice. In addition, any content of this book does not make legal or tax advice. Before investing, investors need to consult with their own investment, accounting, law and tax advisors to independently evaluate the risks, results and compatibility of the investment.
LaSalle has paid rational precautions to guarantee that the information contained in this book is accurate and obtained from a reliable source. Opinions, predictions, predictions, and other descriptions described in this book are described in future outlook. Lasal believes that the predictions reflected in the descriptions of the future forecasts are reasonable, but they include many assumptions, risks and uncertainty. Therefore, LaSalle is the fact, the validity, accuracy, and complete information, the validity, accuracy of other information, opinions, estimates, predictions, and other information described in additional information, document or verbal notifications provided in connection with this book or this book. Regardless of gender and rationality, we do not make any statement or warranty, regardless of whether it is specified or implied, and is not responsible for any responsibility. Lasal has no obligation to update or maintain the latest information or content included in this book in preparation for future events. Lasal shall not be negligible or any responsible for the loss or damage caused by the parties due to the dependence of this book, and what is included in this book is as promised or guaranteed about future events and business results. I do not depend. This document does not solicit the buying and selling of securities or investment products that Lasal Investment Management (hereinafter referred to as the Global Investment Advisory Partner) advise or advises. This document was created unrelated to the recipient's specific investment purpose, financial status, or specific needs, and in any case, this material itself is not intended to be an investment advice. 。 The discussions described in this book are for information only, and may not make up for investment advice, but may be modified, complemented, and changed without notice. In addition, any content of this book does not make legal or tax advice. Before investing, investors need to consult with their own investment, accounting, law and tax advisors to independently evaluate the risks, results and compatibility of the investment.

LaSalle has paid rational precautions to guarantee that the information contained in this book is accurate and obtained from a reliable source. Opinions, predictions, predictions, and other descriptions described in this book are described in future outlook. Lasal believes that the predictions reflected in the descriptions of the future forecasts are reasonable, but they include many assumptions, risks and uncertainty. Therefore, LaSalle is the fact, the validity, accuracy, and complete information, the validity, accuracy of other information, opinions, estimates, predictions, and other information described in additional information, document or verbal notifications provided in connection with this book or this book. Regardless of gender and rationality, we do not make any statement or warranty, regardless of whether it is specified or implied, and is not responsible for any responsibility. Lasal has no obligation to update or maintain the latest information or content included in this book in preparation for future events. Lasal shall not be negligible or any responsible for the loss or damage caused by the parties due to the dependence of this book, and what is included in this book is as promised or guaranteed about future events and business results. I do not depend. This document does not solicit the trading of securities or investment products that Lasal Investment Management (including the global investment advisory partner, hereinafter referred to as "Lasal"). This document was created unrelated to the recipient's specific investment purpose, financial status, or specific needs, and in any case, this material itself is not intended to be an investment advice. 。 The discussions described in this book are for information only, and may not make up for investment advice, but may be modified, complemented, and changed without notice. In addition, any content of this book does not make legal or tax advice. Before investing, investors need to consult with their own investment, accounting, law and tax advisors to independently evaluate the risks, results and compatibility of the investment.LaSalle has paid rational precautions to guarantee that the information contained in this book is accurate and obtained from a reliable source. Opinions, predictions, predictions, and other descriptions described in this book are described in future outlook. Lasal believes that the predictions reflected in the descriptions of the future forecasts are reasonable, but they include many assumptions, risks and uncertainty. Therefore, LaSalle is the fact, the validity, accuracy, and complete information, the validity, accuracy of other information, opinions, estimates, predictions, and other information described in additional information, document or verbal notifications provided in connection with this book or this book. Regardless of gender and rationality, we do not make any statement or warranty, regardless of whether it is specified or implied, and is not responsible for any responsibility. Lasal has no obligation to update or maintain the latest information or content included in this book in preparation for future events. Lasal shall not be negligible or any responsible for the loss or damage caused by the parties due to the dependence of this book, and what is included in this book is as promised or guaranteed about future events and business results. I do not depend.By accepting this document, the recipient agrees not to distribute, furnish or sell this document or any copies thereof, and agrees not to use this document for any other purpose than general information purposes.

Radar's 2024 path to distribution score

This article was published in the September 2024 issue of Pele.

Brian Krynkieck and Eduard Golub (left to right) discuss the investment landscape as we reach the midpoint of 2024.

"You take the blue pill, the story is over, you wake up in your bed, and you believe what you want to believe. You take the red pill... I only offer the truth."

- Morpheus to Neo, The Matrix (1999)

Want to read more?

ISA published the Global Edition of the ISA Outlook 2024 on November 14, 2023. Financial markets were treated well by the Federal Reserve's several rate cuts in 2024, and interest rates fell sharply. For a while, our prediction that it would take the market a little longer to digest another rate hike seemed to be going awry.

However, this interim report is a stark change from six months ago. This is not because nothing has changed, but because the mood has come full circle. Interest rate volatility, weaker fundamentals in some markets, and gaps in quality differentials remain hallmarks, but at the same time there are significant pockets of strength. Financial conditions (i. e., interest rates) remain the dominant market driver, and political and geopolitical uncertainties remain at the forefront of attention in many countries (see LaSalle Macro Quarterly (LMQ), pages 4-6). 1

In this report, we will consider five themes that are likely to lead the real estate market even after 2024. At the European Investor Summit held in May, colleagues Dan Mahony should take a red pill, like Matrix Neo, and see the market as it is, not as we want. I claimed it. To drink a red pill, you need to see the real estate price realistically. It can be seen that the ultr a-low interest rate environment and the "winner" fundamentals are unlikely to return to a calm state.

But that doesn't mean there is no attractive investment opportunity. In contrast to the pessimistic dystopia of Matrix, there are many reasons for optimistic views, and there are signs that the next few months will be a good investment vintage. Nevertheless, successful investment requires a great balance of a large perspective and a fine connoisseur, patience and motivation to take risks.

Relatient rising (2022), a series of alpine ridgeline rides (first half of 2023), unexpected increase of interest rates (the third quarter of 2023), pads for cold and anticipated inflation (1st 2024 (2024) quarter). In recent years, interest rate routes have risen every time inflation is persistent in the United States and other major countries.

Fortunately, interest rates are not a prerequisite for a powerful recovery of real estate trading activities. Despite the high interest rates, many markets and sectors have resumed CMBS issuance and the transaction volume has recovered, and the real estate market has already shown signs of solidifying the feet. The reason is that in areas where interest rates have risen in the past two and a half years (especially Europe and North America), real estate prices have been significantly adjusted so far. The correlation between real estate expectations and other asset class expectations seems to be more appropriate than in the past few months. In other words, more parts of the market are close to or close to fair value. 4 This report considers five themes that are likely to lead the real estate market even after 2024. At the European Investor Summit held in May, colleagues Dan Mahony should take a red pill, like Matrix Neo, and see the market as it is, not as we want. I claimed it. To drink a red pill, you need to see the real estate price realistically. It can be seen that the ultr a-low interest rate environment and the "winner" fundamentals are unlikely to return to a calm state.

There is one certain thing: There is no map on this path. Interest rates have a significant impact on the real estate capital market, but it is extremely difficult to predict. Keep paying attention to investors so as not to overestimate the ability to predict the whereabouts of lon g-term interest rates.

Fortunately, a decrease in interest rates is not a prerequisite for a powerful recovery of real estate trading activities. Despite the high interest rates, many markets and sectors have resumed CMBS issuance, and the transaction volume has recovered, and the real estate market has already shown signs of solidifying the feet. The reason is that in areas where interest rates have risen in the past two and a half years (especially Europe and North America), real estate prices have been significantly adjusted so far. The correlation between real estate expectations and other asset class expectations seems to be more appropriate than in the past few months. In other words, more parts of the market are close to or close to fair value. The four reports will consider five themes that will lead to the real estate market even after 2024. At the European Investor Summit held in May, colleagues Dan Mahony should take a red pill, like Matrix Neo, and see the market as it is, not as we want. I claimed it. To drink a red pill, you need to see the real estate price realistically. It can be seen that the ultr a-low interest rate environment and the "winner" fundamentals are unlikely to return to a calm state.

Nevertheless, interest rates do not need to be reduced to normalize the real estate market, but there is no doubt that interest rates will be more stable than ever. Interest rates fluctuations are enemies for smoothly functioning the private real estate market. Excessive fluctuations in borrowing costs during the du distribution period will lead to a decrease in transactions and the loan reunion. Furthermore, when the interest rate fluctuates, the conclusions of the fair value model fluctuates, affecting the appropriate price evaluation of the buyers and sellers. Looking at the recent trends in the movement index, it seems that 5 and 6 interest rate fluctuations are gradually being eased, but it is still higher than the recent history (see LMQ 13).

Stabilizing interest rates is welcome, but for the time being, it is reasonable to expect that the real estate capital market will continue, which will create both tasks and opportunities. Such situations could be an advantageous entry point for dead investors (render), equity players, and core investors.

The euro regional group can hide the divergence inside. The main cause of the euro area soft tone is Germany (see LMQ23 pages). Germany depends on the manufacturing export and has a past that depends on Russian energy. On the other hand, the Spanish economy is maintained in support of healthy consumption and tourism. In North America, the Canadian economy is less than the US economy, which is susceptible to rising interest rates due to the structure of the mortgage market. (8) Such a regional fluctuation may have a large impact on the housing market, for example, a relative shor t-term outlook on demand and value. Although , it does not require a reduction in interest rates to normalize the real estate market, but there is no doubt that interest rates will be more stable than ever. Interest rates fluctuations are enemies for smoothly functioning the private real estate market. Excessive fluctuations in borrowing costs during the du distribution period will lead to a decrease in transactions and the loan reunion. Furthermore, when the interest rate fluctuates, the conclusions of the fair value model fluctuates, affecting the appropriate price evaluation of the buyers and sellers. Looking at the recent trends in the movement index, it seems that 5 and 6 interest rate fluctuations are gradually being eased, but it is still higher than the recent history (see LMQ 13).

In the past six months, interest rates have been increasingly influenced by shor t-term growth, inflation rates, and financial and financial policy. In particular, bond yield gap between the United States and other markets, especially the euro area, has expanded. The US growth rate and inflation rate are surprising upwards, despite being soft or stable in other countries. The market is currently expected to fall in the Fed of 2024 only, and has decreased up to up to up to four times the year. 7 On the other hand, in early June, the Central Bank of Canada decided to lower it as a Central Bank of G7 for the first time since the start of the large tightening cycle, and immediately after that, the European Central Bank (ECB) has been reduced (see LMQ 7).

The euro regional group can hide the divergence inside. The main cause of the euro area soft tone is Germany (see LMQ23 pages). Germany depends on the manufacturing export and has a past that depends on Russian energy. On the other hand, the Spanish economy is maintained in support of healthy consumption and tourism. In North America, the Canadian economy is less than the US economy, which is susceptible to rising interest rates due to the structure of the mortgage market. (8) Such a regional fluctuation may have a large impact on the housing market, for example, a relative shor t-term outlook on demand and value. Nevertheless, interest rates do not need to be reduced to normalize the real estate market, but there is no doubt that interest rates will be more stable than ever. Interest rates fluctuations are enemies for smoothly functioning the private real estate market. Excessive fluctuations in borrowing costs during the du distribution period will lead to a decrease in transactions and the loan reunion. Furthermore, when the interest rate fluctuates, the conclusions of the fair value model fluctuates, affecting the appropriate price evaluation of the buyers and sellers. Looking at the recent trends in the movement index, it seems that 5 and 6 interest rate fluctuations are gradually being eased, but it is still higher than the recent history (see LMQ 13).

1. Be mindful of the tendency toward overreaction.

2. Consider an asset’s “geopolitical beta.”

3. Avoid excessive focus on catastrophic risks.

Long-term divergences remain between Japan and China. 9 In China, debiasing continues as inflation remains around 0%. 10 In Japan, the gradual normalization of monetary policy has not so far (at least compared to other countries) caused a significant increase in interest rates. In March, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) abandoned negative interest rates and ended most unorthodox monetary policies, but policy rates have remained near zero since then. It is broadly positive that the Japanese economy is "normalizing," but interest rate differentials have pushed the yen to a 34-year low against the US dollar (see LMQ page 14), creating upside risks to inflation. 11 But most importantly, Japan is one of the major markets in the world where real estate leverage contributes significantly to yields.

4. Do not neglect local political risks.

Beyond enhancing the potential benefits of diversification, what do these divergences mean for investors? Mechanically, an unexpected relative softening of interest rates should be beneficial for the relative valuation of real estate in this market, all the same. However, if US interest rates become more stable, we can expect the US dollar to strengthen. This indicates that there are practical limits to global monetary policy divergence. Central banks are keenly aware that currency depreciation entails inflationary risks. Moreover, it is worth asking how long the macroeconomic divergence will last. The current divergence is rooted in differences in the expected timing of interest rate cuts, and permanent decoupling is not expected.

5. Practice diversification but engage in “pattern recognition.”

Secular issues and structural shocks have dominated the trajectory of global real estate markets in recent years. However, a clear cyclical pattern has returned in the form of bullish vacancy rates in the global logistics market and in the US compartment. The return of cyclicality to these favored sectors has significant implications for the near-term outlook.

6. Conduct “what if” exercises around potential impacts.

The softening trend is not new. In the ISA Outlook 2024, we identified noteworthy sectors that were "coming off the boil." Part of the reason was the normalization of demand levels, but the increase in new supply was also a major factor. As expected, the softening trend deepened and led to a decline in rents in some markets, especially apartments in the US Sunbelt metros.

You should not ignore the asshole's fundamentals, but we recommend that investors have an excessive "riding waves" belief. The market supply level and underwriting levels have a large variation, so investors with detailed market data and discipline that incorporate them into the market targeting process can select the most attractive market and su b-skirt. You should take.

Looking ahead

Furthermore, the power of creating a cycle is sowed by the seed of inverted. As is clear from the sudden decrease in the number of starts (see the LMQ25 page), it is expected that the current rapidly increases will soon increase. Many of the currently completed projects have begun construction in an era when the premise of reliable exit interest rates was hundreds of basic points lower than now. Increased interest rates were caused by the growth economy. New development projects that can justify the current land prices, construction costs, and economic conditions are decreasing considerably.

Finally, investors need to think of cash flow on both real and nominal bases. As now, if the growth of the name rent cools down and the inflation cools down, depending on the relative size of each, it may match the stable growth of the real rent.
Supplies are being reset in some markets, but there are other phenomena that should be noted. Some of them have been almost immutable for a long time. The structural lack of structural housing in Europe, Canada, and Australia, and the definition of core real estate has been widely changed, and more busines s-like sectors and subtypes are preferred. 12 The Company continues to invest in cheap life sectors, and to participate in the institutionalization and development of niche subsectors such as detached houses (SFR) and industrial outdoor warehouses (iOS).
More dynamic themes include stabilization of retail real estate, turning point of office investment, etc.:

Various retail su b-sectors in many regions in the retail world of retail have built a stronger ground more than in recent years. This is based on the rebalancing process for almost 10 years, supported by normalization of trends associated with demand, demolition of retail stocks without competitiveness, and removal due to independence. In the past quarterly, retail assets were the most stable performers in portfolios. While consumer psychology is divided into more hig h-quality and healthy households, and lo w-income households who are struggling to overcome inflation with substantial expenditures, rea l-stor e-type retailers are convenient and experience. It has been proven that it plays a permanent role in both type shopping. We are positive for various retail subtypes, especially European outlet centers, major regional malls, and outdoor centers in the United States.

Office All Over the Map-The office sector is literally "everywhere on a map", and the office market is more tight than the combination of any market and sector in the world, a vacancy rate. The outlook varies greatly from region to region, up to many North American offices, which have reached two digits. We support the 13 years of view that the Asi a-Pacific (former Australia and China) market is the best for the outlook for the world's office market, the US market is the worst, and Europe is the middle. do. The theme of office sector is particularly important to mention that the persuasive power of super prestigious offices in major European central business areas is increasing. In some markets, hig h-quality office spaces are significantly deficient, and rents can rise significantly in wel l-located properties.

Other major secular themes that promote today's investment opportunities include the introduction of artificial intelligence (AI) in the demand of data centers, the movement of students in European and Australian students, and the aging of the elderly in the elderly. 。 Redeemed Redeemed Reduction In many areas in many regions in the world, various retail su b-sectors have been built stronger than in recent years. This is based on the rebalancing process for almost 10 years, supported by normalization of trends associated with demand, demolition of retail stocks without competitiveness, and removal due to independence. In the past quarterly, retail assets were the most stable performers in portfolios. While consumer psychology is divided into more hig h-quality and healthy households, and lo w-income households who are struggling to overcome inflation with substantial expenditures, rea l-stor e-type retailers are convenient and experience. It has been proven that it plays a permanent role in both type shopping. We are positive for various retail subtypes, especially European outlet centers, major regional malls, and outdoor centers in the United States.

Other major secular themes that promote today's investment opportunities include the introduction of artificial intelligence (AI) in the demand of data centers, the movement of students in European and Australian students, and the aging of the elderly in the elderly. 。 Various retail su b-sectors in many regions in the retail world of retail have built a stronger ground more than in recent years. This is based on the rebalancing process for almost 10 years, supported by normalization of trends associated with demand, demolition of retail stocks without competitiveness, and removal due to independence. In the past quarterly, retail assets were the most stable performers in portfolios. While consumer psychology is divided into more hig h-quality and healthy households, and lo w-income households who are struggling to overcome inflation with substantial expenditures, rea l-stor e-type retailers are convenient and experience. It has been proven that it plays a permanent role in both type shopping. We are positive for various retail subtypes, especially European outlet centers, major regional malls, and outdoor centers in the United States.

Based on the experience of the past real estate cycle, the best investment opportunity is not only a great uncertainty, volatility, pessimistic period, but also when the initial signs of improvement and stabilization are seen, that is, the current environment. It is suggested that it tends to be born. In my experience, it is almost impossible to match the market with the market, and it is best to be selectively active through the cycle. When you hear the signal of "All Clear" after the market crisis, it is too late to achieve your return after adjusting the best risk.

Nevertheless, the "red medicine" thinking is that the recovery of the capital market to come after the global financial crisis (GFC), given that the central bank is unlikely to promote a supe r-time policy. It is to recognize that the possibility of becoming powerful is low. In order to see the market as it is, it is necessary to see the shor t-term fundamentals realistically as interest rates accept the possibility of continuing stalemate, and the surge in supply affects specific sectors.

Both new and existing investments need to take a realistic stance on interest rates and use the Duration Exposure to the purpose and risk of the investor. Using real estate as a means of investing in the bond market is inefficient and misplaced. We continue to recommend that investors are mainly "takers" in the bond market signal, but today, the bond market signal has a lon g-term interest rate in the United States and several other major markets. It indicates that it is stopped.

The improvement of the growth economy in many markets and sector means that assets can be purchased significantly lower than the change of r e-raising, and to justify the increase in supply, rents and land prices will fall. Suggests that is necessary. Purchasing at a price below the change of the change can be an index indicating an attractive acquisition opportunity, but it is cautious to use the change of the change as an investment judgment alone. In order to truly equalize the purchase position of new assets and old assets, it is necessary to adjust the necessary capital spending. It is often less valuable than the cost of building a new building just because the building is old and lacking competitiveness. Based on the experience of the past real estate cycle, the best investment opportunity is not only a great uncertainty, volatility, pessimistic period, but also a time when the initial signs of improvement and stabilization are seen, that is, the current environment. It is suggested that it tends to be born at the time of time. In my experience, it is almost impossible to match the market with the market, and it is best to be selectively active through the cycle. When you hear the signal of "All Clear" after the market crisis, it is too late to achieve your return after adjusting the best risk.

The improvement of the growth economy in many markets and sector means that assets can be purchased significantly lower than the change of r e-raising, and to justify the increase in supply, rents and land prices will fall. Suggests that is necessary. Purchasing at a price below the change of the change can be an index indicating an attractive acquisition opportunity, but it is cautious to use the change of the change as an investment judgment alone. In order to truly equalize the purchase position of new assets and old assets, it is necessary to adjust the necessary capital spending. It is often less valuable than the cost of building a new building just because the building is old and lacking competitiveness. Based on the experience of the past real estate cycle, the best investment opportunity is not only a great uncertainty, volatility, pessimistic period, but also when the initial signs of improvement and stabilization are seen, that is, the current environment. It is suggested that it tends to be born. In my experience, it is almost impossible to match the market with the market, and it is best to be selectively active through the cycle. When you hear the signal of "All Clear" after the market crisis, it is too late to achieve your return after adjusting the best risk.

Radar's 2024 path to distribution score

This article was published in the September 2024 issue of Pele.

The bottom of the market is hard to see at this time, and it tends to be revealed only after many months. However, it is certain that at least from the time when interest rates rise relentlessly, we have shifted to volatility, mainly pivot points. Furthermore, the mountains of the capital, built before the significant tightening, still need to be restored. Both observations suggest that it is a great opportunity to invest in bonds and real estate equity. The anchor of "R e-Cost Care Rent" works only when the space is fundamentally necessary. In a highly vacant market, such as a US office, it will take years for this mechanism to work. Investors who acquire a lower r e-renewable cost rent in a very imbalanced market need to be prepared to wait for a long time until this discount ends, and the lon g-term progress from discount to profit is mathematical for IRR. It is disadvantageous. Facing shor t-term issues such as new supply waves, but focusing on markets that are characterized by lon g-term strength can create the best return after adjusting the risk.

Demand factors

1) See also ISA briefing "Elections anywhere": Geopolitics and Risk "(April 2024). The briefing outlaws how investors will recommend these risks in focus on the various factors of this year's political uncertainty. At the time of the writing, the political situation was particularly important for the shor t-term market, as elections were held in France and the UK. 2 Source: MSCI Real Capital Analytics and TREPP 3 Japan and China are important exceptions, featured in detail in the "divergence decoded" header. 4, of course, the estimate of the fair value has a big variation. In Lasal, the conclusions of specific input and fair value are unique. 5 Meryl Lynch Optional Volatility estimation (Move) is an index of market implementation volatility in the US Bond Market. Optional prices are calculated in reflection of market participants' expectations for future volatility. Source: Bloomberg, as of June 26, 2024. 7. See below for detailed discussions on the gap between Canada and the United States and the meaning of interest rate reset.

Update ISA

Important economic issues for China and Japan. 9 Source. According to 10 economic theory, the weakness of the currency may promote inflation to increase the cost of imported goods. 11 The article on the quarterly PREA article on the fact that attributes that are desirable for core properties are shifting from traditional indicators such as lease period to observed attributes, such as cash flow stability. I want you to refer to "Changes in Definition". This change has enhanced the appeal of a niche subsector than a traditional sector, such as a conventional office. 12. See the ISA focus report "The Future Review of the Office" published in March 2023.

Important notices and disclaimers

The recipient of this publication agrees to distribute, provide, or sell this publication or its copy, and agrees that this publication is not used for other purposes other than its general information. 1 ISA briefing also see "Geopolitical and Risk" (April 2024). The briefing outlaws how investors will recommend these risks in focus on the various factors of this year's political uncertainty. At the time of the writing, the political situation was particularly important for the shor t-term market, as elections were held in France and the UK. 2 Source: MSCI Real Capital Analytics and TREPP 3 Japan and China are important exceptions, featured in detail in the "divergence decoded" header. 4, of course, the estimate of the fair value has a big variation. In Lasal, the conclusions of specific input and fair value are unique. 5 Meryl Lynch Optional Volatility estimation (Move) is an index of market implementation volatility in the US Bond Market. Optional prices are calculated in reflection of market participants' expectations for future volatility. Source: Bloomberg, as of June 26, 2024. 7. See below for detailed discussions on the gap between Canada and the United States and the meaning of interest rate reset.

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The recipient of this publication agrees to distribute, provide, or sell this publication or its copy, and agrees that this publication is not used for other purposes other than its general information. 1) See also ISA briefing "Elections anywhere": Geopolitics and Risk "(April 2024). The briefing outlaws how investors will recommend these risks in focus on the various factors of this year's political uncertainty. At the time of the writing, the political situation was particularly important for the shor t-term market, as elections were held in France and the UK. 2 Source: MSCI Real Capital Analytics and TREPP 3 Japan and China are important exceptions, featured in detail in the "divergence decoded" header. 4, of course, the estimate of the fair value has a big variation. In Lasal, the conclusions of specific input and fair value are unique. 5 Meryl Lynch Optional Volatility estimation (Move) is an index of market implementation volatility in the US Bond Market. Optional prices are calculated in reflection of market participants' expectations for future volatility. Source: Bloomberg, as of June 26, 2024. 7. See below for detailed discussions on the gap between Canada and the United States and the meaning of interest rate reset.

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Copyright © LaSalle Investment Management 2024. All rights reserved. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, graphic, electronic, mechanical or otherwise, including but not limited to photocopying, recording on magnetic tape, or included in any information storage and/or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of LaSalle Investment Management.

From 2024 to present, European markets have been through inflection points in interest rates, economic growth and real estate capital markets.

Comparisons with other regions

In 2024, cyclical shifts, from trade headwinds to energy and immigration demographics, will interact with geopolitical risks to generate volatility and shift European occupier demand and investor risk appetite.

A commentary on the latest real estate market trends from 2024 to present. Of particular note, the combination of moderate inflation and resilient fundamentals has led to improved post-inflation real market rent growth, even as nominal rent fluctuations have been flatlined.

This article originally appeared in the June 2024 issue of PERE.

LaSalle’s Dan Mahoney spoke with industry peers about the current state of the UK real estate market.

Looking ahead

A rocky road to recovery for the UK real estate sector
After a period of political and economic turmoil, not to mention a paralysed real estate market, participants at PERE’s UK roundtable are hopeful that calmer waters lie ahead, writes Stuart Watson.
For participants at this year’s PERE UK roundtable, certainty is welcome after the prolonged political turmoil leading to Brexit, the Covid-19 pandemic and the global supply chain and inflation crises that have roiled the UK real estate investment market.

Want to read more?

This article originally appeared in the May 2024 issue of PERE.

LaSalle’s Dave White met with other leading European alternative credit providers to discuss the state of real estate debt across Europe.

European real estate debt opportunities are slowly opening up The golden age for alternative real estate lenders has yet to dawn, but there are signs the machine is starting to unclog, writes Judy Chivas.

A year ago, European alternative real estate agents were convinced that they were at the entrance of the Golden Age. At a roundtable meeting on European debt held by PERE in March 2023, participants use the potential delay of refinancing loans that have reached their maturity, as traditional loan destinations may decrease. He talked about the "huge" opportunity. "I've never been so excited about investing in bonds," said one of the participants.

This article was published in the May 2024 issue.

Kunihiko Okumura, the manager of Lasal's management and the highest investment in the Asi a-Pacific region in Japan, tells PERE why Japan is still an attractive market.

Investors maintain a positive attitude before the end of the era upward

In Japan, stable inflation returns, and the skills of asset management are under pressure, but Kunihiko Okumura of LaSalle says there is a chance in all aspects.

Kunihiko Okumura, the manager of Lasal and the Asia-Pacific region of Asia-Pacific in Japan, in response to an interview with the PERE's "JAPAN 2024" report, the influence of Japan's rise in interest rates, various offices, apartments, and logistics. He talked about market prospects, including business opportunities in sector.

LaSalle's Brian Clinkyquek and Zuhabbat (right to right) are discussing how investors should handle 2024 elections.

Approximately 60 % of the world's population lives in a large election in 2024, and the market accounts for 65 % of the real estate investment market for institutional investors. That supports the appeal of the market that is transparent and easy to invest. Nevertheless, elections have the potential to change their returns. Regardless of the current election Super Cycle (see Rasal Macro Quotery (LMQ), 4 Pages), the current geopolitical risks are the current geological risks. It raises important issues on how to manage investment risks related to the problem. One year ago, European alternative real estate agents were convinced that they were at the Golden Age. At a roundtable meeting on European debt held by PERE in March 2023, participants use the potential delay of refinancing loans that have reached their maturity, as traditional loan destinations may decrease. He talked about the "huge" opportunity. "I've never been so excited about investing in bonds," said one of the participants.

This article was published in the May 2024 issue.

Kunihiko Okumura, the manager of Lasal's management and the highest investment in the Asi a-Pacific region in Japan, tells PERE why Japan is still an attractive market.

Investors maintain a positive attitude before the end of the era upward

In Japan, stable inflation returns, and the skills of asset management are under pressure, but Kunihiko Okumura of LaSalle says there is a chance in all aspects.

Radar's 2024 path to distribution score

This article was published in the September 2024 issue of Pele.

This article was published in the May 2024 issue.

Kunihiko Okumura, the manager of Lasal's management and the highest investment in the Asi a-Pacific region in Japan, tells PERE why Japan is still an attractive market.

Investors maintain a positive attitude before the end of the era upward

In Japan, stable inflation returns, and the skills of asset management are under pressure, but Kunihiko Okumura of LaSalle says that there is a chance in all aspects.

LaSalle's Brian Clinkyquek and Zuhabbat (right to right) are discussing how investors should handle 2024 elections.

One of the leading actors of the Osca r-awar d-winning film, All Every Wear All Ats One, states that "right is a small box invented by scared people." Lasal's risk management philosophy focuses on optimizing risk and return trading, rather than minimizing risk take. Today's geopolitical events are particularly likely to confuse the predictions that require accurate correctness.

What is involved in speculation is "unknown", but "right" is ambiguous, and how should investors operate assets? What context should be reduced geopolitical risk? We propose six suggestions to keep in mind for many elections that may affect the market in 2024 and for investors who inventive some conflicts.

In many cases, the prediction of the former elections investment impact was overestimated. For example, prior to the 2016 US presidential election, Donald Trump's ant i-immigrants and protectionist stances have widespread forecasts a major adverse effect on the US economy. After the two stock markets have rebounded in a short period of time, they have recovered strongly, proving that the US economy has a recovery power for rhetoric and policy changes associated with the new president. 3

Before the US election in the latter half of this year, which is almost certain that Biden and Trump will be a rematch, reports on the differences in candidates should be aware of their similarities. Both candidates are trying to prioritize domestic production, and as a result, the levels in the supply chain and the supply chain may rise. 4. In addition, election prediction odds (see LMQ66 pages) suggest that the division of both the upper and lower houses and the presidential position can be divided. In general, the division of the public means the relative stability of the Domestic Political Bureau, which is a plus for the market. 5) All of these factors suggest that at least the elections may have a lon g-term effect on the market. One of the leading actors of the movie "All Every Wear All Ats One", which won the Oscar, stated that "right is a small box invented by scared people." I am. Lasal's risk management philosophy focuses on optimizing risk and return trading, rather than minimizing risk take. Today's geopolitical events are particularly likely to confuse the predictions that require accurate correctness.

Before the US election in the latter half of this year, which is almost certain that Biden and Trump will be a rematch, reports on the differences in candidates should be aware of their similarities. Both candidates are trying to prioritize domestic production, and as a result, the levels in the supply chain and the supply chain may rise. 4. In addition, election prediction odds (see LMQ66 pages) suggest that the division of both the upper and lower houses and the presidential position can be divided. In general, the division of the public means the relative stability of the Domestic Political Bureau, which is a plus for the market. 5) All of these factors suggest that at least the elections may have a lon g-term effect on the market. One of the leading actors of the Osca r-awar d-winning film, All Every Wear All Ats One, states that "right is a small box invented by scared people." Lasal's risk management philosophy focuses on optimizing risk and return trading, rather than minimizing risk take. Today's geopolitical events are particularly likely to confuse the predictions that require accurate correctness.

Economic theory teaches that systematic risk is unacceptable. 6 Systematic factors are factors that have a significant and extensive impact that affect all asset prices. However, in economic theory, it is also acceptable that different assets have a different degree of response to the same series of factors. The "beta" of the asset means the reaction of the price of the asset to a factor. This is an effective way to consider the sensitivity of investment in political and geopolitical events. For example, real estate in urban areas where economy is greatly influenced by government expenditures is likely to be highly sensitive to political changes. In addition, there are cases where properties located in the Baltic countries, the former Sovieties that are bordered by Russia, are particularly sensitive to the relationship between Russia and the Western countries. Investors need to be aware of their empirical estimates the degree of asset sensitivity to geopolitics or intuitively estimated due to lack of data.

Systemic risk is not a systemic factor. Systemic risk also includes serious confusion that has the potential to reorganize the entire market in an unpredictable form. As an example of such an extreme event, there is a possibility that today's s o-called "proxy war" may escalate to a wider and aggressive conflict between the great powers, but cannot be ignored. 8 The task of incorporating such an unexpected situation into investment decisions is not only appropriately evaluated the possibility of such an event, but also establishes an ideal strategic response in case of occurring. be. The catastrophic turmoil is extremely rare, and it may create difficult or impossible winners and losers in the asset market. 9) It may be more fruitful for investors to focus on a gentle (and more likely) probability, which has the advantage of being able to model it. Economic theory teaches that systematic risk is unacceptable. 6 Systematic factors are factors that have a significant and extensive impact that affect all asset prices. However, in economic theory, it is also acceptable that different assets have a different degree of response to the same series of factors. The "beta" of the asset means the reaction of the price of the asset to a factor. This is an effective way to consider the sensitivity of investment in political and geopolitical events. For example, real estate in urban areas where economy is greatly influenced by government expenditures is likely to be highly sensitive to political changes. In addition, there are cases where properties located in the Baltic countries, the former Sovieties that are bordered by Russia, are particularly sensitive to the relationship between Russia and the Western countries. Investors need to be aware of their empirical estimates the degree of asset sensitivity to geopolitics or intuitively estimated due to lack of data.

Systemic risk is not a systemic factor. Systemic risk also includes serious confusion that has the potential to reorganize the entire market in an unpredictable form. As an example of such an extreme event, there is a possibility that today's s o-called "proxy war" may escalate to a wider and aggressive conflict between the great powers, but cannot be ignored. 8 The task of incorporating such an unexpected situation into investment decisions is not only appropriately evaluated the possibility of such an event, but also establishes an ideal strategic response in case of occurring. be. The catastrophic turmoil is extremely rare, and it may create difficult or impossible winners and losers in the asset market. 9) It may be more fruitful for investors to focus on a gentle (and more likely) probability, which has the advantage of being able to model it. Economic theory teaches that systematic risk is unacceptable. 6 Systematic factors are factors that have a significant and extensive impact that affect all asset prices. However, in economic theory, it is also acceptable that different assets have a different degree of response to the same series of factors. The "beta" of the asset means the reaction of the price of the asset to a factor. This is an effective way to consider the sensitivity of investment in political and geopolitical events. For example, real estate in urban areas where economy is greatly influenced by government expenditures is likely to be highly sensitive to political changes. In addition, there are cases where properties located in the Baltic countries, the former Sovieties that are bordered by Russia, are particularly sensitive to the relationship between Russia and the Western countries. Investors need to be aware of their empirical estimates the degree of asset sensitivity to geopolitics or intuitively estimated due to lack of data.

Systemic risk is not a systemic factor. Systemic risk also includes serious confusion that has the potential to reorganize the entire market in an unpredictable form. An example of such an extreme event is that today's s o-called "proxy war" may escalate to a wider and aggressive conflict between the great powers, but cannot be ignored. 8 The task of incorporating such an unexpected situation into investment decisions is not only appropriately evaluated the possibility of such an event, but also establishes an ideal strategic response in case of occurring. be. The catastrophic turmoil is extremely rare, and it may create difficult or impossible winners and losers in the asset market. 9) It may be more fruitful for investors to focus on a gentle (and more likely) probability, which has the advantage of being able to model it.

Media reports, of course, tend to concentrate on situations and borders, but local political trends can affect real estate investment. In particular, many of the most relevant issues are only interested in niche audience, so such problems can fly under radar. For example, policy changes related to problems such as planning processes, property taxes, and transfer taxes (alias, stamp taxes) can have a real estate cash flow, and then the value, which can be measured directly and directly. There must be no excessive coverage of important regional issues that affect real estate by being distracted by the bright topics of global geopolitics.

Political risks can be dealt with by distributed investment to some extent. This is especially true for individual events that affect countries and small countries, such as specific cities, states, and prefectures. However, in many cases, political events are a more widespread arc that can potentially affect a wide range. A small seed that has been piled up may change in a chain from an unknown state. Nothing shows this as well as populism, nationalism, and protectionism around the world. The concept of globalized nationalism may seem inconsistent, but this is a fact. 1 0-minute investment is an important concept of portfolio construction that is useful for many types of risk management, including political risks, but some of the more difficult patterns that seem to be "special" are more difficult to "distribute investment". If so, you need to pay attention to recognize it. ... "

Geopolitical and political risks are difficult to incorporate into traditional financial analysis. Scenario thinking is effective in identifying investment issues that can be caused by geopolitical trends. These can show avoidable strategies and new portrait strategies to pursue. The Looking AHEAD in this note introduces some of the main themes tracked by the Company. media reports are, of course, and tend to concentrate on scenes across countries and borders, but local political trends can affect real estate investment. In particular, many of the most relevant issues are only interested in niche audience, so such problems can fly under radar. For example, policy changes related to problems such as planning processes, property taxes, and transfer taxes (alias, stamp taxes) can have a real estate cash flow, and then the value, which can be measured directly and directly. There must be no excessive coverage of important regional issues that affect real estate by being distracted by the bright topics of global geopolitics.

Geopolitical and political risks are difficult to incorporate into traditional financial analysis. Scenario thinking is effective in identifying investment issues that can be caused by geopolitical trends. These can show avoidable strategies and new portrait strategies to pursue. The Looking AHEAD in this note introduces some of the main themes tracked by the Company. Media reports, of course, tend to concentrate on situations and borders, but local political trends can affect real estate investment. In particular, many of the most relevant issues are only interested in niche audience, so such problems can fly under radar. For example, policy changes related to problems such as planning processes, property taxes, and transfer taxes (alias, stamp taxes) can have a real estate cash flow, and then the value, which can be measured directly and directly. There must be no excessive coverage of important regional issues that affect real estate by being distracted by the bright topics of global geopolitics.

Elim Poon - Journalist, Creative Writer

Last modified: 27.08.2024

Key Outlook themes: Mixed macroeconomic picture: economic growth and fundamentals will be uneven and market specific, with risks weighted toward the first. [1] See U.S. Office Market Dynamics, Q1, Jones Lang LaSalle asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates. Our March macro deck focused on the ensuing volatility of equity markets, consumer prices and energy costs. In June, there is no sign of the conflict abating.

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