Pursuit of Prosperity Amid Changes Evolution of Trade Rules and Global Industry Chains SpringerLink

Pursuit of Prosperity Amid Changes: Evolution of Trade Rules and Global Industry Chains

Trade rules refer to a set of agreements that countries must abide by in international trade. With the globalization of industrial chains, countries around the world are aware of the need to strengthen their own national security. This is happening in the midst of widespread changes caused by geopolitical factors. We believe that trade rules may gradually evolve from the dominance of the World Trade Organization (WTO) to a new stage of the parallel development of the WTO and Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs). In the future, we expect that the WTO and PTAs will exert pressure on each other and evolve simultaneously, reshaping the landscape of world trade. The WTO will continue to play its core adjudication function and promote basic consensus in a wide range of fields, while PTAs will likely play a more obvious leading role in rule-making in emerging fields. This will lead to deeper integration of regional economies and trade.

The evolution of trade rules may increase uncertainty in the global industrial chain in the short term and affect changes in the global industrial chain in the medium to long term. First, the transition from offshore outsourcing to proximity and friendly outsourcing may become increasingly important in the industrial chain. Second, as the influence of big powers in the evolution of trade rules increases, the regionalization of industrial chains around big powers should become more widespread. Finally, some emerging industries may have opportunities for further opening up under new trade rules. Labor-intensive industries are relatively less affected by the evolution of trade rules, while capital- and technology-intensive industries such as machinery and electronics may be more seriously affected as the global development of industrial chains becomes more susceptible to PTA-independent growth.

We believe that the Chinese trade rules system currently not yet supported the efficient and secure development of industrial chains. First, China's influence is relatively small in the world's multilateral trade systems, and it is difficult to provide a strong propulsion for WTO reform. This means that the development of China's industrial chain is affected by external pressure. Second, some regional trade agreements that China lead or participate in, in its depth and size, is still before the development and promotes the integration of closely industrial chains in the short term. You can only play a limited role. Third, China's institutional agreements on the openness are still there to be improvements, and China's ability to integrate with hig h-level international economy and trade rules is still limited. We believe that this may hinder further integration into global industrial chains to some extent.

In the future, China will adapt to the evolution of trade rules and promote complementary and joint development of multilateral trade, regional trade, and domestic market rules. Under the multilateral system, China will actively participate in the reform of WTOs, maintain the differences, explore common points, build consensus, and lead the multilateral cooperation platform. In the regional market, China can adopt mult i-level development strategies and upgrade the regional trade agreement. In the domestic market, it is possible to make efforts to promote the hig h-level system opening with the tes t-like free trade area as a test bed.

The author of this chapter: Keitsu Kure, Higashi Liang, Zhang Taku, Kure Aikyo. Translator: Wang. Editor: Kenneth Ho, Grant Salidge, Liang Higashi, Liu Shi n-Ran.

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Keywords

Global industrial chain
WTO
Special trade agreement
Trade rules

The globalization wave since the 1980s has brought the rapid growth of the global economy, but its main sign is the liberalization of trade. However, in recent years, under the pressure of pandemic, Cobid 19, geopolitical conflict (Russia / Ukraine conflict, etc.), and economic and technical competition between major countries, some economy will maintain the safety of their own industrial chains. For this reason, it has introduced a trade protection policy again. Therefore, the globalism has gradually changed from thinking and thoughts to action.

In retrospect, the world trade in the previous century was not necessarily a dominant theme. Thirty years from 1914 to 1945, two World War I, the 1918 Spanish colds, and the Great Depression of the 1930s, some countries have strengthened trade protection policies and tariffs. I was connected to. What is the difference between "Harvesting" and the "Harvesting" so far? Will each country be more closed to industrial development, or will it continue to seek safety in the open policy? What are the opportunities and issues facing China facing, and how can they deal with them? In this chapter, we answer these questions from the perspective of international trade rules.

4.1 Trade Rules: A Perspective for Understanding Global Industry Chains

In the international trade system, trade behaviors in each country are influenced not only by their own trade policies, but also by agreements, laws, components, and model trade rules that all countries must comply with. Written trade agreements are the most common trade rules. Trade rules can be divided into two types of trade agreements. First, it is a WTO agreement, and is characterized by being comprehensive based on the polymer principle. Second, PTA is based on a single negotiations or multilateral negotiations and may be discriminatory. Footnote 1 In addition, it is possible to formulate highly differentiated trade clause, such as specific duties, investments, and competitive policies, in both types of trade agreements. The wave of globalization since the 1980s has brought the rapid growth of the global economy, but its main expression is the liberalization of trade. However, in recent years, under the pressure of pandemic, Cobid 19, geopolitical conflict (Russia / Ukraine conflict, etc.), and economic and technical competition between major countries, some economy will maintain the safety of their own industrial chains. For this reason, it has introduced a trade protection policy again. Therefore, the globalism has gradually changed from thinking and thoughts to action.

In the international trade system, trade behaviors in each country are influenced not only by their own trade policies, but also by agreements, laws, components, and model trade rules that all countries must comply with. Written trade agreements are the most common trade rules. Trade rules can be divided into two types of trade agreements. First, it is a WTO agreement, and is characterized by being comprehensive based on the polymer principle. Second, PTA is based on a single negotiations or multilateral negotiations and may be discriminatory. Footnote 1 In addition, it is possible to formulate highly differentiated trade clause, such as specific duties, investments, and competitive policies, in both types of trade agreements. The globalization wave since the 1980s has brought the rapid growth of the global economy, but its main sign is the liberalization of trade. However, in recent years, under the pressure of pandemic, Cobid 19, geopolitical conflict (Russia / Ukraine conflict, etc.), and economic and technical competition between major countries, some economy will maintain the safety of their own industrial chains. For this reason, it has introduced a trade protection policy again. Therefore, the globalism has gradually changed from thinking and thoughts to action.

In the past, commercial historian Douglas Irwin talked about trade rules. According to Irwin, the prosperity of the global economy over the past half a century is largely due to the growth of global trade, and is also the result of the prescribed authorities that have created a GATS agreement (GATS). They have created a series of procedures to bring stability in the trade policy environment and promote rapid growth in world trade. From a lon g-term perspective, the initial guts have contributed to the world economy on a healthy foundation and to improve the lives of hundreds of millions of people. The tw o-footed comments confirm the contribution of the trade rules and clarify that the trade rules create a "healthy foundation" that improves economic efficiency, and eventually the prosperity of the nation. The trade rules play a role in creating a global environment with low barriers. The function of the trade rules is reflected in two ways:

The most direct function of the trade rules is to function as an "accelerator" that promotes industrial trade development. Figure 4. 1 verifies the overall impact of 220 or more trade agreements in the past 60 years, and has played an important role in promoting trade growth. I want to be noticed. In particular, the creation of internal trade (trade flow between member countries) increased by 24 % in pure amounts due to facilitating domestic trade in the region. With the integration of regional trade, foreign demands in member countries have declined, and trade flows from other regions to agreement areas have decreased by 32 %. The most important thing is that trade agreements promote the accumulation of industries and scale in the region, and to enhance the overall economic power of the region. As a result, additional trade creation (that is, trade flows from agreement areas to other areas) increased by 39 %. Once, commercial historian Douglas Irwin has talked about trade rules. According to Irwin, the prosperity of the global economy over the past half a century is largely due to the growth of global trade, and is also the result of the prescribed authorities that have created a GATS agreement (GATS). They have created a series of procedures to bring stability in the trade policy environment and promote rapid growth in world trade. From a lon g-term perspective, the initial guts have contributed to the world economy on a healthy foundation and to improve the lives of hundreds of millions of people. The tw o-footed comments confirm the contribution of the trade rules and clarify that the trade rules create a "healthy foundation" that improves economic efficiency, and eventually the prosperity of the nation. The trade rules play a role in creating a global environment with low barriers. The function of the trade rules is reflected in two ways:

The most direct function of the trade rules is to function as an "accelerator" that promotes industrial trade development. Figure 4. 1 verifies the overall impact of 220 or more trade agreements in the past 60 years, and has played an important role in promoting trade growth. I want to be noticed. In particular, the creation of internal trade (trade flow between member countries) increased by 24 % in pure amounts due to facilitating domestic trade in the region. With the integration of regional trade, foreign demands in member countries have declined, and trade flows from other regions to agreement areas have decreased by 32 %. The most important thing is that trade agreements promote the accumulation of industries and scale in the region, and to enhance the overall economic power of the region. As a result, additional trade creation (that is, trade flows from agreement areas to other areas) increased by 39 %. In the past, commercial historian Douglas Irwin talked about trade rules. According to Irwin, the prosperity of the global economy over the past half a century is largely due to the growth of global trade, and is also the result of the prescribed authorities that have created a GATS agreement (GATS). They have created a series of procedures to bring stability in the trade policy environment and promote rapid growth in world trade. From a lon g-term perspective, the initial guts have contributed to the world economy on a healthy foundation and to improve the lives of hundreds of millions of people. The tw o-footed comments confirm the contribution of the trade rules and clarify that the trade rules create a "healthy foundation" that improves economic efficiency, and eventually the prosperity of the nation. The trade rules play a role in creating a global environment with low barriers. The function of the trade rules is reflected in two ways:

The trade rules also function as "stabilizers" in the industrial chain, and can alleviate pressure on chain industry companies. This is especially important in today's international environment. Without the trade rules, international trade may face the s o-called prisoner's dilemma, and global industrial chains may stagnate. According to a study by economist Abinache Dixit, in a world without trade rules, large companies in an oligolopic state, using the provision of trade barriers (for example, imposing imported tariffs and improving the trade conditions). Although we can provide subsidies to gain profits, such actions distort free trade and trigger retaliation from other countries. Without such actions to suppress and punish, global industrial chains will eventually get stuck. Footnote 3 In fact, as shown in Fig. 4. 2, the uncertainty of trade policies has been significantly increased after the epidemic of COVID-19, which is a global supply chain.

Figure 4. 4. 1

Note GVC refers to a global value chain. Source François de Soyres et al

The trade rules function as the "acceleration device" of the industrial chain.

4.2 Trend Amid Deglobalization: From a Multilateral Mechanism to a Multilateral Mechanism Plus Regional Mechanisms

4.2.1 Economic and Political Factors Dominate the Evolution of Trade Rules

Figure 4. 2

Source New York Bank, Trade Policy uncertainty index, CGI

The trade rules function as "stabilizer" in the industrial chain.

By functioning as an "accelerator" and "stable device", effective trade rules can increase the economy of the scale and form a larger market based on complementary advantages and free trade. First, the flow and aggregation of agents in the region can be more efficient in the consolidated market, and the boundary of the scale of the scale can be expanded. Second, the construction of a consolidated market means that trade policies in each country will be unified and predictable, reducing friction costs between countries and expanding the room for the production and sales of member countries. 。 Trade rules also function as "stabilizers" in the industrial chain, and can alleviate pressure on chain industrial companies. This is especially important in today's international environment. Without the trade rules, international trade may face the s o-called prisoner's dilemma, and global industrial chains may stagnate. According to a study by economist Abinache Dixit, in a world without trade rules, large companies in an oligolopic state, using the provision of trade barriers (for example, imposing imported tariffs and improving the trade conditions). Although we can provide subsidies to gain profits, such actions distort free trade and trigger retaliation from other countries. Without such actions to suppress and punish, global industrial chains will eventually get stuck. Footnote 3 In fact, as shown in Fig. 4. 2, the uncertainty of trade policies has been significantly increased after the epidemic of COVID-19, which is a global supply chain.

Figure 4. 4. 1

Note GVC refers to a global value chain. Source François de Soyres et al

4.2.2 Global Trade Rules: Towards a New Stage of Development Driven by Both Multilateral and Regional Mechanisms

The trade rules function as the "acceleration device" of the industrial chain.

Figure 4. 2

Source New York Bank, Trade Policy uncertainty index, CGI

The trade rules function as "stabilizer" in the industrial chain.

By functioning as an "accelerator" and "stable device", effective trade rules can increase the economy of the scale and form a larger market based on complementary advantages and free trade. First, the flow and aggregation of agents in the region can be more efficient in the consolidated market, and the boundary of the scale of the scale can be expanded. Second, the construction of a consolidated market means that trade policies in each country will be unified and predictable, reducing friction costs between countries and expanding the room for the production and sales of member countries. 。 The trade rules also function as "stabilizers" in the industrial chain, and can alleviate pressure on chain industry companies. This is especially important in today's international environment. Without the trade rules, international trade may face the s o-called prisoner's dilemma, and global industrial chains may stagnate. According to a study by economist Abinache Dixit, in a world without trade rules, large companies in an oligolopic state, using the provision of trade barriers (for example, imposing imported tariffs and improving the trade conditions). Although we can provide subsidies to gain profits, such actions distort free trade and trigger retaliation from other countries. Without such actions to suppress and punish, global industrial chains will eventually get stuck. Footnote 3 In fact, as shown in Fig. 4. 2, the uncertainty of trade policies has been significantly increased after the epidemic of COVID-19, which is a global supply chain.

Figure 4. 4. 1

Note GVC refers to a global value chain. Source François de Soyres et al

The trade rules function as the "acceleration device" of the industrial chain.

Figure 4. 2

Source New York Bank, Trade Policy uncertainty index, CGI

The trade rules function as "stabilizer" in the industrial chain.

4.3 Global Industry Chain: Regionalization Gathering Momentum Amid a Rising Level of Uncertainty

4.3.1 Reshaping Global Industry Chains: Transfer of Industry Chains, Regional Agglomeration, and a New Opening-Up

Over the past 40 years, the flow of globalization has led to the three productions and exports hubs, the United States, Germany and China. Around these three hub countries, many markets with various sizes are formed. In this process, the member states can benefit from the economies of the size created by the trade rules, and the major beneficiaries are countries with a large economy. According to a survey, the United States is estimated to have earned an additional profit of $ 127 billion every year thanks to the "extra" trade growth by the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which is estimated to be $ 127 billion each year. It is equivalent to 0. 93%. Footnote 4

In fact, the trade rules have not only developed with the development of industrial chains, but also functioning as the driving force to reconstruct industrial chains. For example, the trade of intermediate goods has led to new terms related to global industrial chains, and the rapid growth of the digital economy has encouraged each country to negotiate digital trade conditions. At the same time, the evolution of trade rules has given new stimuli and restrictions on the development of industrial chains. For example, since the establishment of the WTO, the complex industrial chains that have long processes, such as home appliances, automobiles, and advanced technical equipment, and need to assemble parts across borders have greatly benefited from tariff reduction. There is something.

International trade has a long history. International trade had already been formed during the Great Voyage from the 15th to the 16th century. However, before the end of World War II in 1945, there was no wide range of mechanisms to adjust world trade. Footnote 5 At this time, each country was following a traditional trade model of exchanging industrial products and raw materials. Even in the first globalization period from 1870 to 1914, the average average tariff rate in the world did not decrease, and the flow of trade was mainly reflected in the movement of people rather than moving things. For example, the number of international immigrants doubled in the 10 years from 1896 to 1906. Footnote 6 However, the ratio of the world exports to GDP was almost stable. Over the past 40 years, the flow of globalization has led to the three productions and exports hubs, the United States, Germany and China. Around these three hub countries, many markets with various sizes are formed. In this process, the member states can benefit from the economies of the size created by the trade rules, and the major beneficiaries are countries with a large economy. According to a survey, the United States is estimated to have earned an additional profit of $ 127 billion every year thanks to the "extra" trade growth by the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which is estimated to be $ 127 billion each year. It is equivalent to 0. 93%. Footnote 4

4.3.2 Impacts on Different Industrial Sectors Could Also Vary Notably

International trade has a long history. International trade had already been formed during the Great Voyage from the 15th to the 16th century. However, before the end of World War II in 1945, there was no wide range of mechanisms to adjust world trade. Footnote 5 At this time, each country was following a traditional trade model of exchanging industrial products and raw materials. Even in the first globalization period from 1870 to 1914, the average average tariff rate in the world did not decrease, and the flow of trade was mainly reflected in the movement of people rather than moving things. For example, the number of international immigrants doubled in the 10 years from 1896 to 1906. Footnote 6 However, the ratio of the world exports to GDP was almost stable. Over the past 40 years, the flow of globalization has led to the three productions and exports hubs, the United States, Germany and China. Around these three hub countries, many markets with various sizes are formed. In this process, the member states can benefit from the economies of the size created by the trade rules, and the major beneficiaries are countries with a large economy. According to a survey, the United States is estimated to have earned an additional profit of $ 127 billion every year thanks to the "extra" trade growth by the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which is estimated to be $ 127 billion each year. It is equivalent to 0. 93%. Footnote 4

During this period, including two World War I, the generation of pandemic and geopolitics highlighted the disadvantages of lack of cooperation in international trade. After World War I, which began in 1914, the globalization wave gradually weakened. Due to the occurrence of the Spanish cold in 1918, the rise of trade wars and nationalism from the 1920s to the 1930s, the flow of globalization has gradually increased, and the domestic "infant" in the domestic "infant. The significant increase in tariffs to protect the industry and maintain financial income was a proof. For example, in 1915, the British Congress raised the import tariffs of automobiles and watches to 33, 3%(footnotes 7), and in 1930, the Smoot Holy Customs Law was established in the United States, raising tariffs on all imported goods. Ta. These unilateral protection policy ultimately led to a rapid shrinking world trade.

4.4 China’s Trade Rules: Progress and Shortcomings

The formulation of international trade rules, which was supported by economic factors, was a common ambition after World War II. Freedom trade theory based on economic research, such as Adam Smith and David Ricardo, has been dominant after the two World War. As World War II reviewing damage and destruction given to the global economy and international order, some countries have begun to support the construction of multilateral trade systems and trade liberalization. Footnote 8, led by the United States, the UK, Canada and Australia, signed GATT, and a significant reduction in global average tariffs has led to a new globalization. GATT gradually became a WTO and has established a solid foundation for the current multilateral trade system. During this period, including two World War I, pandemic and geopolitics highlighted the disadvantages of lack of coordination in international trade. After World War I, which began in 1914, the globalization wave gradually weakened. Due to the occurrence of the Spanish cold in 1918, the rise of trade wars and nationalism from the 1920s to the 1930s, the flow of globalization has gradually increased, and the domestic "infant" in the domestic "infant. The significant increase in tariffs to protect the industry and maintain financial income was a proof. For example, in 1915, the British Congress raised the import tariffs of automobiles and watches to 33, 3%(footnotes 7), and in 1930, the Smoot Holy Customs Law was established in the United States, raising tariffs on all imported goods. Ta. These unilateral protection policy ultimately led to a rapid shrinking world trade.

The formulation of international trade rules, which was supported by economic factors, was a common ambition after World War II. Freedom trade theory based on economic research, such as Adam Smith and David Ricardo, has been dominant after the two World War. As World War II reviewed the damage and destruction given to the world economy and international order, some countries have begun to support the construction of multilateral trade systems and trade liberalization. Footnote 8, led by the United States, the UK, Canada and Australia, signed GATT, and a significant reduction in global average tariffs has led to a new globalization. GATT gradually became a WTO and has established a solid foundation for the current multilateral trade system. During this period, including two World War I, the generation of pandemic and geopolitics highlighted the disadvantages of lack of cooperation in international trade. After World War I, which began in 1914, the globalization wave gradually weakened. Due to the occurrence of the Spanish cold in 1918, the rise of trade wars and nationalism from the 1920s to the 1930s, the flow of globalization has gradually increased, and the domestic "infant" in the domestic "infant. The significant increase in tariffs to protect the industry and maintain financial income was a proof. For example, in 1915, the British Congress raised the import tariffs of automobiles and watches to 33, 3%(footnotes 7), and in 1930, the Smoot Holy Customs Law was established in the United States, raising tariffs on all imported goods. Ta. These unilateral protection policy ultimately led to a rapid shrinking world trade.

As the rise of international economy and trade changes due to the rise of Japan and Europe, trade rules have changed again due to economic and political factors. From the end of World War II to the 1960s, the United States continued to be the world's strongest in industrial production, accounted for about 50 % of the world's manufacturing production (footnotes 9), and was the world's largest export country. Meanwhile, Japan and Europe were rapidly revived after the war. In 1965, the United States recorded a deficit for the first time in a tw o-country trade with Japan, gradually expanding the trade deficit, and launched the US economic situation. In order to eliminate the trade deficit and protect the status in the international market, the United States imposed sanctions on Japanese fiber, television, steel, automobiles, and semiconductor industries, and further pressure to Japan through the 1985 plaza agreement and Japan. 。 -The Japa n-US structural barrier concept in 1989. As a whole, the trade rules at this time were influenced by both economic and political factors, and were created for the benefit of great power. For example, the United States has signed a mult i-fiber agreement with the 40 countries and regions using the dominant status in GATT, and as a result, these countries have joined the WTO. As the rise of Japan and Europe changes the international economy and trade situation, trade rules have changed again due to economic and political factors. From the end of World War II to the 1960s, the United States continued to be the world's strongest in industrial production, accounted for about 50 % of the world's manufacturing production (footnotes 9), and was the world's largest export country. Meanwhile, Japan and Europe were rapidly revived after the war. In 1965, the United States recorded a deficit for the first time in a tw o-country trade with Japan, gradually expanding the trade deficit, and launched the US economic situation. In order to eliminate the trade deficit and protect the status in the international market, the United States imposed sanctions on Japanese fiber, television, steel, automobiles, and semiconductor industries, and further pressure to Japan through the 1985 plaza agreement and Japan. 。 -The Japa n-US structural barrier concept in 1989. As a whole, the trade rules at this time were influenced by both economic and political factors, and were created for the benefit of great power. For example, the United States has signed a mult i-fiber agreement with the 40 countries and regions using the dominant status in GATT, and as a result, these countries have joined the WTO. As the rise of international economy and trade changes due to the rise of Japan and Europe, trade rules have changed again due to economic and political factors. From the end of World War II to the 1960s, the United States continued to be the world's strongest in industrial production, accounted for about 50 % of the world's manufacturing production (footnotes 9), and was the world's largest export country. Meanwhile, Japan and Europe were rapidly revived after the war. In 1965, the United States recorded a deficit for the first time in a tw o-country trade with Japan, gradually expanding the trade deficit, and launched the US economic situation. In order to eliminate the trade deficit and protect the status in the international market, the United States imposed sanctions on Japanese fiber, television, steel, automobiles, and semiconductor industries, and further pressure to Japan through the 1985 plaza agreement and Japan. 。 -The Japa n-US structural barrier concept in 1989. As a whole, the trade rules at this time were influenced by both economic and political factors, and were created for the benefit of great power. For example, the United States has signed a mult i-fiber agreement with 40 countries and regions using the dominant status in GATT, and as a result, these countries have joined the WTO.

With the rise of developing countries, the evolution of trade rules was again dominated by economic factors, and the world entered a trade boom. In the 1990s, developing countries such as China and Vietnam accelerated industrialization, setting the stage for the formation of global industrial chains. Driven by the activities of multinational companies from developed countries, developing countries mainly benefited from industrial transport, taking advantage of low labor costs. The pattern of ILO changed from a separate segment of labor to an intra-industry segment of labor. The determinants of labor allocation among countries changed from comparative advantage in products to comparative advantage in factors. Driven by economic interests, the Tokyo Round (1973-1979) and the Uruguay Round (1986-1993) of the Multilateral Trade Negotiations (MTN) led to an average tariff reduction of 35% and 39%, respectively (note 10), and the world average tariffs plummeted to about 3 and 5%. Footnote 11 Against this background, international trade experienced an unprecedented boom from 1990 to 2007, with world exports growing at an average annual rate of 6. 2%, much faster than the GDP growth rate of 3. 2% during the same period. Footnote 12

While the global financial crisis put a pause on the second round of globalization, the competition among major powers for international status and influence again led to a new stage of development oriented toward political considerations. The global expansion of trade and value chains stagnated after the financial crisis, and participation in global value chains mainly declined from 2010 to 2016. Footnote 13 WTO reforms were launched, and the United States, China, and the EU clashed over reforms in key areas such as dispute settlement, SOE protection, and industrial subsidies. Footnote 14 Regional trade agreements (RTAs) between countries and regions with close economic and trade ties and consistent policy positions, as exemplified by the PTA, began to appear in large numbers. In 2009 alone, 21 PTAs came into force, showing obvious domino effects. The fierce competition between major powers and various geopolitical actors shifted the basis of international trade rules from efficiency to security. Developed countries such as the United States shifted the focus of international trade negotiations from multilateral to regional negotiations. They started negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Transatlantic Partnership and Investment Partnership (TTIP), and created the TPP and the Transatlantic Partnership and Investment Partnership (TTIP).

Notes

In recent years, trade liberalization has faced unprecedented issues under pressure, such as global public health crisis, geopolitical conflict, and competition between major countries. However, unlike 1914 to 1945, when globalization began, industrial chains in each country are now deeply integrated, and trade in intermediate goods is rapidly expanding. It is difficult for individual countries to weaken international connections and take their own trade protection. Each country is active in building alliance to strengthen security while maintaining openness. As a result, the demand for transparency has not declined. However, we believe that what is important for each country is to decide who cooperates with and how to realize openness. This also means that international trade rules are more likely to go to higher levels of flexibility and independence while being affected by political factors. WT O-based multilateral mechanics and PT A-based regional agreements will play an important role in each field.

Of course, WTO and RTA are not separate. They are applying pressure to each other and jointly promoting the continuous evolution of international trade rules. The PTA will take pressure on the WTO and lead the WTO reform by performing an experimental and exemplary role. For example, in the 1990s, the United States began NAFTA negotiations in Uruguay Round negotiations, and in the creation of an agreement on trad e-related aspects of intellectual property rights (TRIPS) on trad e-related investment measures (TRIPS). Introduced the provisions of investment protection and intellectual property rights protection. The multilateral rules established by footnote 15 WTOs have also led to a deeper regional cooperation. For example, in June 2022, the WTO's 12th Homeral Conference (MC12) adopted a ministerial agreement on travel, and in order to respond to Cobid 19 pandemic, each country manufactures and supply Cobid 19 vaccines without permission of patent rights. He acknowledged that he would use the necessary patents. This movement may have a significant impact on PTA rules on public health crisis. In recent years, trade liberalization has faced unprecedented issues under pressure, such as global public health crisis, geopolitical conflict, and competition between major countries. However, unlike 1914 to 1945, when globalization began, industrial chains in each country are now deeply integrated, and trade in intermediate goods is rapidly expanding. It is difficult for individual countries to weaken international connections and take their own trade protection. Each country is active in building alliance to strengthen security while maintaining openness. As a result, the demand for transparency has not declined. However, we believe that what is important for each country is to decide who cooperates with and how to realize openness. This also means that international trade rules are more likely to go to higher levels of flexibility and independence while being affected by political factors. WT O-based multilateral mechanics and PT A-based regional agreements will play an important role in each field. Of course, WTO and RTA are not separate. They are applying pressure to each other and jointly promoting the continuous evolution of international trade rules. The PTA will take pressure on the WTO and lead the WTO reform by performing an experimental and exemplary role. For example, in the 1990s, the United States began NAFTA negotiations in Uruguay Round negotiations, and in the creation of an agreement on trad e-related aspects of intellectual property rights (TRIPS) on trad e-related investment measures (TRIPS). Introduced the provisions of investment protection and intellectual property rights protection. The multilateral rules established by footnote 15 WTOs have also led to a deeper regional cooperation. For example, in June 2022, the WTO's 12th Homeral Conference (MC12) adopted a ministerial agreement on travel, and in order to respond to Cobid 19 pandemic, each country manufactures and supply Cobid 19 vaccines without permission of patent rights. He acknowledged that he would use the necessary patents. This movement may have a significant impact on PTA rules on public health crisis. In the future, it is thought that the inclusion of economic development and national security between major countries will affect the development of future international trade rules. Each country has reached a polymer consensus, the WTO reform has resolved the deadlock, the PTA has become more comprehensive, and the countries are deeply integrated into institutional arrangements, and the WTO and PTA are likely to move globalization. This trend took place in the 1990s, especially in the Atlantic Traffic Dialogue (TABD) in the Atlantic Ocean Traffic Dialogue (TABD). After the support of APEC member states, the concept was submitted to the WTO. The negotiations were concluded in 1997, and ITA was a multilateral agreement. Conversely, competition between great powers intensifies, WTO reform stagnates, and PTAs may become a tool for the formation of opposition alliance in the core. In such a scenario, the globalization may increase.

At the same time, with the growth of the world economy, the spread of new technology, and the emergence of new issues, the development of WTO and PTA will also show new features. In particular, WTOs can show three trends regarding their judicial functions, negotiations in specific fields, and operating mechanisms.

First, the multilateral trade system based on the WTO is the cornerstone of international trade, and the WTO will continue to achieve important judicial functions. Despite criticism of the dispute resolution mechanism, WTO's international judicial mechanism deals with more projects than in any of the world. The dispute resolution has become more and more active from 2014 to 2018, before the United States began to affect the selection of WTO appealing judges. Footnote 16 In addition, despite the discomfort, the United States has filed 124 WTO conflict projects to deal with trade subsidies, ant i-damping, and intellectual property protection. Footnote 17 In the future, the multilateral trade system based on the rules may continue to be the key to international trade and negotiations. As a guardian of the multilateral system, the WTO can still provide a place for interaction and consultation between the leaders of each country. Therefore, it is possible to provide high certainty for trade policies, competing against pressure from protectionist policies. Footnote 18 In the future, it is thought that the inclusiveness of economic development and national security between major countries will affect the development of future international trade rules. Each country has reached a polymer consensus, the WTO reform has resolved the deadlock, the PTA has become more comprehensive, and the countries are deeply integrated into institutional arrangements, and the WTO and PTA are likely to move globalization. This trend took place in the 1990s, especially in the Atlantic Traffic Dialogue (TABD) in the Atlantic Ocean Traffic Dialogue (TABD). After the support of APEC member states, the concept was submitted to the WTO. The negotiations were concluded in 1997, and ITA was a multilateral agreement. Conversely, competition between great powers intensifies, WTO reform stagnates, and PTAs may become a tool for the formation of opposition alliance in the core. In such a scenario, the globalization may increase. Of course, WTO and RTA are not separate. They are applying pressure to each other and jointly promoting the continuous evolution of international trade rules. The PTA will take pressure on the WTO and lead the WTO reform by performing an experimental and exemplary role. For example, in the 1990s, the United States began NAFTA negotiations in Uruguay Round negotiations, and in the creation of an agreement on trad e-related aspects of intellectual property rights (TRIPS) on trad e-related investment measures (TRIPS). Introduced the provisions of investment protection and intellectual property rights protection. The multilateral rules established by footnote 15 WTOs have also led to a deeper regional cooperation. For example, in June 2022, the WTO's 12th Homeral Conference (MC12) adopted a ministerial agreement on travel, and in order to respond to Cobid 19 pandemic, each country manufactures and supply Cobid 19 vaccines without permission of patent rights. He acknowledged that he would use the necessary patents. This movement may have a significant impact on PTA rules on public health crisis. First, the multilateral trade system based on the WTO is the cornerstone of international trade, and the WTO will continue to achieve important judicial functions. Despite criticism of the dispute resolution mechanism, WTO's international judicial mechanism deals with more projects than in any of the world. The dispute resolution has become more and more active from 2014 to 2018, before the United States began to affect the selection of WTO appealing judges. Footnote 16 In addition, despite the discomfort, the United States has filed 124 WTO conflict projects to deal with trade subsidies, ant i-damping, and intellectual property protection. Footnote 17 In the future, the multilateral trade system based on the rules may continue to be the key to international trade and negotiations. As a guardian of the multilateral system, the WTO can still provide a place for interaction and consultation between the leaders of each country. Therefore, it is possible to provide high certainty for trade policies, competing against pressure from protectionist policies. Footnote 18 In the future, it is thought that the inclusion of economic development and national security between major countries will affect the development of international trade rules in the future. Each country has reached a polymer consensus, the WTO reform has resolved the deadlock, the PTA has become more comprehensive, and the countries are deeply integrated into institutional arrangements, and the WTO and PTA are likely to move globalization. This trend took place in the 1990s, especially in the Atlantic Traffic Dialogue (TABD) in the Atlantic Ocean Traffic Dialogue (TABD). After the support of APEC member states, the concept was submitted to the WTO. The negotiations were concluded in 1997, and ITA was a multilateral agreement. Conversely, competition between great powers intensifies, WTO reform stagnates, and PTAs may become a tool for the formation of opposition alliance in the core. In such a scenario, the globalization may increase. At the same time, with the growth of the world economy, the spread of new technology, and the emergence of new issues, the development of WTO and PTA will also show new features. In particular, WTOs can show three trends regarding their judicial functions, negotiations in specific fields, and operating mechanisms.

Second, despite the slow progress of the Doha Round negotiations, in the multilateral mechanism, efforts have been made to find new methods to obtain basic consensus on trade rules. After the Uruguay Round negotiations, why aren't the important framework agreements of the WTO? The main reasons are in the WTO negotiation system. In accordance with the principles of traditional consensus decisions, all 164 member countries must reach the consensus. However, the expectations and development stages of each country are often very different, and it is difficult to achieve results with such negotiations. The Open Multilateral Agryment (OPA) of the WTO offers possible solutions. It is negotiated, adopted, and operated by WTO member states. The results of the negotiations will be used only between participating countries, or will be expanded to no n-member countries based on the best treatment (MFN). Footnote 19 This means that if the difference between countries cannot be dealt with in a short term, it is possible to obtain high consensus and reach an agreement between countries before gradually developing into multilateral rules. For example, the environmental goods agreement (EGA), which was established in 2014, has been negotiated 18 times. The EGA has 28 countries participating, targeting 54 environmental goods. Second, , despite the slow progress of Doha Round negotiations, we have made efforts to find new methods for gaining basic consensus on trade rules in the multilateral mechanism. I have come. After the Uruguay Round negotiations, why aren't the important framework agreements of the WTO? The main reasons are in the WTO negotiation system. In accordance with the principles of traditional consensus decisions, all 164 member countries must reach the consensus. However, the expectations and development stages of each country are often very different, and it is difficult to achieve results with such negotiations. The Open Multilateral Agryment (OPA) of the WTO offers possible solutions. It is negotiated, adopted, and operated by WTO member states. The results of the negotiations will be used only between participating countries, or will be expanded to no n-member countries based on the best treatment (MFN). Footnote 19 This means that if the difference between countries cannot be dealt with in a short term, it is possible to obtain high consensus and reach an agreement between countries before gradually developing into multilateral rules. For example, the environmental goods agreement (EGA), which was established in 2014, has been negotiated 18 times. The EGA has 28 countries participating, targeting 54 environmental goods. Second, despite the slow progress of Dorha Round negotiations, among the multilateral mechanisms, efforts have been made to find new methods to obtain basic consensus on trade rules. After the Uruguay Round negotiations, why aren't the important framework agreements of the WTO? The main reasons are in the WTO negotiation system. In accordance with the principles of traditional consensus decisions, all 164 member countries must reach the consensus. However, the expectations and development stages of each country are often very different, and it is difficult to achieve results with such negotiations. The Open Multilateral Agryment (OPA) of the WTO offers possible solutions. It is negotiated, adopted, and operated by WTO member states. The results of the negotiations will be used only between participating countries, or will be expanded to no n-member countries based on the best treatment (MFN). Footnote 19 This means that if the difference between countries cannot be dealt with in a short term, it is possible to obtain high consensus and reach an agreement between countries before gradually developing into multilateral rules. For example, the environmental goods agreement (EGA), which was established in 2014, has been negotiated 18 times. The EGA has 28 countries participating, targeting 54 environmental goods. among them

Finally, the great power plays an increasingly important role in the functions of multilateral mechanisms. From the establishment of GATT to the establishment of the WTO, the function of the multilateral trade system was inseparable from the leading role of the Global Governance. Footnote 21 Since 2018, major WTO negotiations have been interrupted. During this time, the EU, China, and the United States have published documents to promote WTO reform. However, there are differences in opinions on important issues such as dispute mechanism reform, approval of developing country status, and industrial subsidies. At present, the need for WTO reform is widely recognized in the context of "lack of governance", but the pace of reform may depend on the willingness to reform the major countries and whether they can obtain consensus. So far, the progress of reforms is limited.

Based on the multilateral system, PTA plays a more prominent role in the three aspects, that is, to play a leading and exemplary role in the rules, integrate the regional economy, and focus on industrial policy. I think you can. Finally, the great power plays an increasingly important role in the multilateral mechanism function. From the establishment of GATT to the establishment of the WTO, the function of the multilateral trade system was inseparable from the leading role of the Global Governance. Footnote 21 Since 2018, major WTO negotiations have been interrupted. During this time, the EU, China, and the United States have published documents to promote WTO reform. However, there are differences in opinions on important issues such as dispute mechanism reform, approval of developing country status, and industrial subsidies. At present, the need for WTO reform is widely recognized in the context of "lack of governance," but the reform pace may depend on the willingness to reform the major countries and whether they can get consensus. So far, the progress of reforms is limited.

Based on the multilateral system, PTA plays a more prominent role in the three aspects, that is, to play a leading and exemplary role in the rules, integrate the regional economy, and focus on industrial policy. I think you can. Finally, the great power plays an increasingly important role in the functions of multilateral mechanisms. From the establishment of GATT to the establishment of the WTO, the function of the multilateral trade system was inseparable from the leading role of the Global Governance. Footnote 21 Since 2018, major WTO negotiations have been interrupted. During this time, the EU, China, and the United States have published documents to promote WTO reform. However, there are differences in opinions on important issues such as dispute mechanism reform, approval of developing country status, and industrial subsidies. At present, the need for WTO reform is widely recognized in the context of "lack of governance", but the pace of reform may depend on the willingness to reform the major countries and whether they can obtain consensus. So far, the progress of reforms is limited.

First, PTA can play a leading role in creating rules in emerging fields. Since the number of PTA member countries is much less than WTO member states, negotiations may be less impaired, and negotiations may be more intensive, which is more detailed in PTA clause, speed of upgraded pace. It is reflected in good implementation. For example, under the WTO travel agreement, PTAs in each country have expanded the scope of intellectual property protection based on their own characteristics. In particular, Japan and South Korea emphasize extensive patent protection, the United States pays attention to copyright protection, and the EU pays attention to geographical labeling. Footnote 22 In addition, PTA has a clearer, execution procedure that is clearer than traveling. As digital and green issues become more and more important, it is expected that PTA will play a greater role in promoting the standard upgrade. For example, the Pacific Partnership Comprehensive and Advanced Agreements (CPTPP), the US and Mexican Canada Agreement (USMCA), and the regional comprehensive economic cooperation (RCEP) all include the rules for digital trade. The USMCA uses more aggressive digital trade provisions, and the platform is required to not consider the following: First, PTA can play a leading role in creating rules in emerging fields. Since the number of PTA member countries is much less than WTO member states, negotiations may be less impaired, and negotiations may be more intensive, which is more detailed in PTA clause, speed of upgraded pace. It is reflected in good implementation. For example, under the WTO travel agreement, PTAs in each country have expanded the scope of intellectual property protection based on their own characteristics. In particular, Japan and South Korea emphasize extensive patent protection, the United States pays attention to copyright protection, and the EU pays attention to geographical labeling. Footnote 22 In addition, PTA has a clearer, execution procedure that is clearer than traveling. As digital and green issues become more and more important, it is expected that PTA will play a greater role in promoting the standard upgrade. For example, the Pacific Partnership Comprehensive and Advanced Agreements (CPTPP), the US and Mexican Canada Agreement (USMCA), and the regional comprehensive economic cooperation (RCEP) all include the rules for digital trade. The USMCA uses more aggressive digital trade provisions, and the platform is required to not consider the following: First, PTA can play a leading role in creating rules in emerging fields. Since the number of PTA member countries is much less than WTO member states, negotiations may be less impaired, and negotiations may be more intensive, which is more detailed in PTA clause, speed of upgraded pace. It is reflected in good implementation. For example, under the WTO travel agreement, PTAs in each country have expanded the scope of intellectual property protection based on their own characteristics. In particular, Japan and South Korea emphasize extensive patent protection, the United States pays attention to copyright protection, and the EU pays attention to geographical indications. Footnote 22 In addition, PTA has a clearer, execution procedure that is clearer than traveling. As digital and green problems become more and more important, it is expected that PTA will play a greater role in promoting the standard upgrade. For example, the Pacific Partnership Comprehensive and Advanced Agreements (CPTPP), the US and Mexican Canada Agreement (USMCA), and the regional comprehensive economic cooperation (RCEP) all include the rules for digital trade. The USMCA uses more aggressive digital trade provisions, and the platform is required to not consider the following:

Second, several major regional trade agreements have emerged to create new patterns of regional integration. In recent years, major regional trade agreements such as the CPTPP and RCEP have emerged, promoting the formation of new regional integration patterns that incorporate regional economic and trade links and rules and systems. First, integration in scale. Large regional trade agreements cover a large number of countries and economies, resulting in strong trade creation and trade diversion effects. For example, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimates that the trade creation effect of RCEP will stimulate trade among member countries by US$17 billion, and the trade diversion effect will reach US$25 billion. The sum of these two figures represents 18. 3% of intra-regional trade in 2019. Footnote 24 Second, integration of rules: Major regional trade agreements can integrate higher standards of rules to a greater extent. For example, the TPP has 26 provisions, nearly half of which are not found in other free trade agreements applied in the Asia-Pacific region, such as on agriculture, labor standards, environment, and subsidies. Finally, PTAs, one of the major foreign trade instruments of major countries, may be more closely linked to each country's domestic industrial policy. For example, in the past decade, the United States has focused on emerging industries such as branding, biomedical, big data, AI, IT, and finance in the CPTPP and TTIP negotiations and the USMCA documents to strengthen its domestic industries. Footnote 26 At the same time, the U. S. industrial and national security policy also emphasizes the importance of leadership in strategic emerging industries and dealing with external competition. In particular, the rules of origin clauses in PTAs can be restrictive measures, and PTAs themselves can be used to expand industrial policies within the trade bloc. For example, the United States recently introduced the Inflation Reduction Act, which requires automakers to source more than 40% of their critical mineral batteries from domestic or free trade partners from 2023. Footnote 27 Second, several major regional trade agreements have emerged to create new patterns of regional integration. In recent years, major regional trade agreements such as the CPTPP and RCEP have emerged, promoting the formation of a new regional integration pattern that incorporates regional economic and trade links and rules and systems. First, integration by scale. Large regional trade agreements cover a large number of countries and economies, resulting in strong trade creation and trade diversion effects. For example, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimates that the trade creation effect of RCEP will stimulate trade among member countries by US$17 billion, while the trade diversion effect will reach US$25 billion. The sum of these two figures represents 18. 3% of intra-regional trade in 2019. Footnote 24 Second, integration by rules: Major regional trade agreements can integrate higher standards of rules to a greater extent. For example, the TPP has 26 provisions, nearly half of which are not found in other free trade agreements applied in the Asia-Pacific region, such as on agriculture, labor standards, the environment, and subsidies. Finally, PTAs, one of the major foreign trade instruments for major countries, may be more closely linked to each country's domestic industrial policy. For example, in the past decade, the United States has focused on emerging industries such as branding, biomedical, big data, AI, IT, and finance in the CPTPP and TTIP negotiations and the USMCA documents to strengthen its domestic industries. 26 At the same time, the U. S. industrial and national security policy also emphasizes the importance of leadership in strategic emerging industries and dealing with external competition. In particular, the rules of origin clauses in PTAs can be restrictive measures, and PTAs themselves can be used to expand industrial policies within the trade bloc. For example, the United States recently introduced the Inflation Reduction Act, which requires automakers to source more than 40% of their critical mineral batteries from domestic or free trade partners from 2023. 27 Second, several major regional trade agreements have emerged to create new patterns of regional integration. In recent years, major regional trade agreements such as the CPTPP and RCEP have emerged, promoting the formation of a new regional integration pattern that incorporates regional economic and trade links and rules and systems. First, integration by scale. Large regional trade agreements cover a large number of countries and economies, resulting in strong trade creation and trade diversion effects. For example, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimates that the trade creation effect of RCEP will stimulate trade among member countries by US$17 billion, while the trade diversion effect will reach US$25 billion. The sum of these two figures represents 18. 3% of intra-regional trade in 2019. Footnote 24 Second, integration by rules: Major regional trade agreements can integrate higher standards of rules to a greater extent. For example, the TPP has 26 provisions, nearly half of which are not found in other free trade agreements applied in the Asia-Pacific region, such as on agriculture, labor standards, the environment, and subsidies. Finally, PTAs, which are one of the major foreign trade instruments for major countries, may be more closely linked to each country's domestic industrial policy. For example, over the past decade, the United States has focused on emerging industries such as branding, biomedical, big data, AI, IT, and finance in the CPTPP and TTIP negotiations and the USMCA documents to strengthen its domestic industries. Footnote 26 At the same time, the U. S. industrial and national security policy also emphasizes the importance of leadership in strategic emerging industries and dealing with external competition. In particular, the rules of origin clauses in PTAs can be restrictive measures, and PTAs themselves can be used to expand industrial policies within the trade bloc. For example, the United States recently introduced the Inflation Reduction Act, which requires automakers to source more than 40% of their critical mineral batteries domestically or from free trade partners from 2023. Footnote 27

On the surface, trade rules have evolved into a spiral pattern in the interaction of WTO and RTA, based on the advantage of WTO. In short, the evolution of trade rules has caused multifaceted changes, such as the development and cooperation of global industrial chains. In the era when trade rules were promoted by economic factors, efficiency was the main development goal of industrial chains. However, as political consideration is reflected in the trade rules, the safety of industrial chains becomes more important. This is reflected in the increased trends in regionalization and diversification of industrial chains, the possibility of decline of some industrial chains, and changes from shallow integration of industrial chains to deep integration. Specifically, how does a footnote 28 have an impact on industrial chains? And how does the impact differ depending on the industrial chain? Answer these questions in the next section.

As the reform of multilateral rules spreads, the uncertainty about the growth of the global industries chain will increase. The operation of a global industrial chain is inevitably subject to dispute, and the resolution of such a dispute should be based on the WTO conflict resolution mechanism. For example, China has won the DS437 case (a petition to the United States and other offset tariffs on exports to the United States and other products have violated the WTO agreement), and the United States is an objection to the United States. In order to maintain a normal competition, imports from the United States were authorized to impose tariffs on $ 645 million a year. We believe that the stable function of global industrial chains is urgently needed to protect multilateral rules. For example, during COVID-19 pandemic, many countries have taken measures to respond to the need for industrial security in their own country, which hindered the free development of global industrial chains, some industries. The chain was confused and broken. We believe that the evolution of trade rules for global industrial chains will be reflected in three ways. Surfigible, trade rules have evolved into a spiral pattern in the interaction of WTO and RTA, based on the advantage of WTO. In short, the evolution of trade rules has caused multifaceted changes, such as the development and cooperation of global industrial chains. In the era when trade rules were promoted by economic factors, efficiency was the main development goal of industrial chains. However, as political consideration is reflected in the trade rules, the safety of industrial chains becomes more important. This is reflected in the increased trends in regionalization and diversification of industrial chains, the possibility of decline of some industrial chains, and changes from shallow integration of industrial chains to deep integration. Specifically, how does a footnote 28 have an impact on industrial chains? And how does the impact differ depending on the industrial chain? Answer these questions in the next section.

As the reform of multilateral rules spreads, the uncertainty about the growth of the global industries chain will increase. The operation of a global industrial chain is inevitably subject to dispute, and the resolution of such a dispute should be based on the WTO conflict resolution mechanism. For example, China has won the DS437 case (a petition to the United States and other offset tariffs on exports to the United States and other products have violated the WTO agreement), and the United States is an objection to the United States. In order to maintain a normal competition, imports from the United States were authorized to impose tariffs on $ 645 million a year. We believe that the stable function of global industrial chains is urgently needed to protect multilateral rules. For example, during COVID-19 pandemic, many countries have taken measures to respond to the need for industrial security in their own country, which hindered the free development of global industrial chains, some industries. The chain was confused and broken. We believe that the evolution of trade rules for global industrial chains will be reflected in three ways. On the surface, trade rules have evolved into a spiral pattern in the interaction of WTO and RTA, based on the advantage of WTO. In short, the evolution of trade rules has caused multifaceted changes, such as the development and cooperation of global industrial chains. In the era when trade rules were promoted by economic factors, efficiency was the main development goal of industrial chains. However, as political consideration is reflected in the trade rules, the safety of industrial chains becomes more important. This is reflected in the increased trends in regionalization and diversification of industrial chains, the possibility of decline of some industrial chains, and changes from shallow integration of industrial chains to deep integration. Specifically, how does a footnote 28 have an impact on industrial chains? And how does the impact differ depending on the industrial chain? Answer these questions in the next section.

First, policies that do not treat free trade may increase significantly, and shifts from offshore outsourcing to outsourcing and friendly coasts may increase industrial chains. According to the Global Trade Alert, the number of policies that do not prefer free trade increased from 217 to 2022 in 2012 to 2. 137, suggesting an annual average growth rate of 23, 1%, and two tasks in conventional offshore outs and outsourcing. Makes. Against the increasingly emphasis on industrial chains, the great power is increasingly tended to put industrial chains in a geographically close area. According to Carney's survey, about 70 % of US CEOs in 2021 plans to relocate some of the manufacturing industry to Mexico to strengthen the management system. Note 29 Furthermore, it may be more difficult to conclude a new PTA with an uncertain commercial environment and policies. Note 30 This is shown by an increase in the average distance between the member countries of the new PTA, the increase in cooperation between countries that share values, the s o-called friendly coastal outsourcing.

Second, as the influence of great powers to the evolution of trade rules increases, the influence of regional industrial chains surrounding great powers may become apparent. Research has shown that the effects of trade agreements on the industrial chain increase as the number of member countries increases and the trade clause deepens. Footnote 31 To conclude a PTA with such characteristics, it is necessary to increase the participation of great powers. This is because the great powers indicate that they have a clear advantage in negotiations in fields such as size, market access, and policies. These backgrounds may increase the influence of regional industrial chains, which is the core of the great powers. For example, the main trade agreements such as the EU, NAFTA, and RCEP stipulate certain regional development clauses for automotive industrial chains. NAFTA stipulates that only products with at least 62, 5 % regional value content (RVC) can enjoy preferential tax system, and USMCA requires that RVC requirements downwards from 62, 5 %. It was. Impact on the regional industrial chain Finally, while WTOs and DTAs are applying pressure to each other and jointly promoting the continuous evolution of international trade rules, there may be opportunities for some industrial chains to be opened. WTOs tend to seek deepening through mechanism innovation, such as OPA, while PTA tends to have a greater influence through rules. The interaction between the two may promote the opening and development of a specific industrial chain, especially global needs and without established rules. For example, the exemption decision for traveling on travel in the COVID-19 vaccine described above allows developing countries to produce COVID-19 vaccines without patent holding and export to developing countries. 。 Footnote 33 In addition, a certain provisions linked to the opening of these fields have been gradually introduced in fields such as the Digital and Green Economics. For example, before 2020, there was a big difference in digital taxation, and each country generally taxed on digital companies and caused trade protectionism. After multilateral organizations such as the G7 and OECD agreed on tax approaches to the digital economy, set a lower limit for multinational companies to 15%, each country began to tax on the digital economy uniformly.

The evolution of trade rules affects the industrial chain through two channels, mainly two channels: production costs and production costs, and the level of sensitivity varies depending on the industry. Here, the four leading industries of the labor industry, technology, technology, and resource industries, that is, the differences in the effects of the evolution of trade rules by the industry, selecting fiber / apparel, machine production, electronic information, coal and oil, and the industry's evolution. do. As a whole, the "shallow" rules such as tariffs have a relatively large effect on labo r-intensive industrial chains, such as fibers and apparel. Capital and technical integrated industries, such as machinery and electronics, suggest that they are more sensitive to no n-tariff barriers and can be seriously affected by the evolution of trade rules. The energy industry can also face higher trade risks due to its unique features and great influence on the economy. Finally, there may be an opportunity for some industrial chains to open up as WTOs and DTAs are applying pressure to each other and jointly promoting the continuous evolution of international trade rules. WTOs tend to seek deepening through mechanism innovation, such as OPA, while PTA tends to have a greater influence through rules. The interaction between the two may promote the opening and development of a specific industrial chain, especially global needs and without established rules. For example, the exemption decision for traveling on travel in the COVID-19 vaccine described above allows developing countries to produce COVID-19 vaccines without patent holding and export to developing countries. 。 Footnote 33 In addition, a certain provisions linked to the opening of these fields have been gradually introduced in fields such as the Digital and Green Economics. For example, before 2020, there was a big difference in digital taxation, and each country generally taxed on digital companies and caused trade protectionism. After multilateral organizations such as the G7 and OECD agreed on tax approaches to the digital economy, set a lower limit for multinational companies to 15%, each country began to tax on the digital economy uniformly.

The evolution of trade rules affects the industrial chain through two channels, mainly two channels: production costs and production costs, and the level of sensitivity varies depending on the industry. Here, the four leading industries of the labor industry, technology, technology, and resource industries, that is, the differences in the effects of the evolution of trade rules by the industry, selecting fiber / apparel, machine production, electronic information, coal and oil, and the industry's evolution. do. As a whole, the "shallow" rules such as tariffs have a relatively large effect on labo r-intensive industrial chains, such as fibers and apparel. Capital and technical integrated industries, such as machinery and electronics, suggest that they are more sensitive to no n-tariff barriers and can be seriously affected by the evolution of trade rules. The energy industry can also face higher trade risks due to its unique features and great influence on the economy. Finally, while WTOs and DTAs are applying pressure to each other and jointly promoting the continuous evolution of international trade rules, there may be opportunities for some industrial chains to be opened. WTOs tend to seek deepening through mechanism innovation, such as OPA, while PTA tends to have a greater influence through rules. The interaction between the two may promote the opening and development of a specific industrial chain, especially global needs and without established rules. For example, the exemption decision for traveling on travel in the COVID-19 vaccine described above allows developing countries to produce COVID-19 vaccines without patent holding and export to developing countries. 。 Footnote 33 In addition, a certain provisions linked to the opening of these fields have been gradually introduced in fields such as the Digital and Green Economics. For example, before 2020, there was a big difference in digital taxation, and each country generally taxed on digital companies and caused trade protectionism. After multilateral organizations such as the G7 and OECD agreed on tax approaches to the digital economy, set a lower limit for multinational companies to 15%, each country began to tax on the digital economy uniformly.

Since fiber and clothing are typical labo r-intensive industries, the cost is the core of development, the intermediate input is limited, the technology is relatively mature, and the sensitivity to the shallow trade rules such as tariffs is the sensitivity to shallow trade rules. expensive. In retrospect, the 1970s mult i-family arrangement (MFA) set up exports of fiber and clothing in each country in the form of assignments, urging the later countries to sophisticated industries. PTAs, such as the NAFTA, African Growth Museum Law (AGOA), and the Dominican Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR), have enhanced local fiber and clothing industrial chains, and fiber and clothing for East Asia and Southeast Asian fibers and clothing. It is now a major base in the fiber and clothing industry, which promotes development. As of 34, fiber and apparel chains are relatively unstable, vulnerable to direct trade policies such as tariffs, but they have higher resilience than other industries in terms of resilience from trade shocks. There is.

In contrast, capital and technical integrated industries such as machinery and electronic equipment may be mainly constrained by no n-tariff barriers and may face more issues. Capital and technical aggregation industries are often characterized by the complexity of products, abundant intermediate inputs, and powerful economies, forming a relatively complex global production network. Taking the chip industry chain as an example, all major countries in the European, the United States, and Asi a-Pacific regions produce several major intermediate materials, leading to some countries that are autonomous and managed. 。 In scrap context, these industries could face more trade barriers. For example, in some countries, global industrial chains are confused through trade protection measures such as export regulations, and s o-called localization of products is accelerating. As political factors and industrial chain security become increasingly important, these two types of industries can be seriously affected by adjusted trade rules. This may appear in the form of accelerating the return of industrial chains to their own country and reducing the cooperation between regions. Fiber and clothing is a typical labo r-intensive industry, so the cost is the core of development, the intermediate input is limited, the technology is relatively mature, and the light trade rules such as tariffs are shallow trade rules. High sensitivity to. In retrospect, the 1970s mult i-family arrangement (MFA) set up exports of fiber and clothing in each country in the form of assignments, urging the later countries to sophisticated industries. PTAs, such as the NAFTA, African Growth Museum Law (AGOA), and the Dominican Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR), have enhanced local fiber and clothing industrial chains, and fiber and clothing for East Asia and Southeast Asian fibers and clothing. It is now a major base in the fiber and clothing industry, which promotes development. As of 34, fiber and apparel chains are relatively unstable, vulnerable to direct trade policies such as tariffs, but they have higher resilience than other industries in terms of resilience from trade shocks. There is.

In contrast, capital and technical integrated industries such as machinery and electronic equipment may be mainly constrained by no n-tariff barriers and may face more issues. Capital and technical aggregation industries are often characterized by the complexity of products, abundant intermediate inputs, and powerful economies, forming a relatively complex global production network. Taking the chip industry chain as an example, all major countries in the European, the United States, and Asi a-Pacific regions produce several major intermediate materials, leading to some countries that are autonomous and managed. 。 In scrap context, these industries could face more trade barriers. For example, in some countries, global industrial chains are confused through trade protection measures such as export regulations, and s o-called localization of products is accelerating. As political factors and industrial chain security become increasingly important, these two types of industries can be seriously affected by adjusted trade rules. This may appear in the form of accelerating the return of industrial chains to their own country and reducing the cooperation between regions. Since fiber and clothing are typical labo r-intensive industries, the cost is the core of development, the intermediate input is limited, the technology is relatively mature, and the sensitivity to the shallow trade rules such as tariffs is the sensitivity to shallow trade rules. expensive. In retrospect, the 1970s mult i-family arrangement (MFA) set up exports of fiber and clothing in each country in the form of assignments, urging the later countries to sophisticated industries. PTAs, such as the NAFTA, African Growth Museum Law (AGOA), and the Dominican Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR), have enhanced local fiber and clothing industrial chains, and fiber and clothing for East Asia and Southeast Asian fibers and clothing. It is now a major base in the fiber and clothing industry, which promotes development. As of 34, fiber and apparel chains are relatively unstable, vulnerable to direct trade policies such as tariffs, but they have higher resilience than other industries in terms of resilience from trade shocks. There is.

The impact of trade rules in the energy field is relatively limited, but industries play an important role in competition between great powers because of the significant impact on economic systems. As a result, the issues and risks facing the industry may increase. Unlike the other three types of industries, the energy industry was not affected by trade rules in the past, and the impact on both tariffs and no n-tax barriers was limited. When each country concludes a PTA, consideration for the energy industry may not be a major factor. Footnote 35 However, the energy industry is indispensable for economic growth, especially in the European Energy Crisis, which was the end of the Russian and Ukraine disputes. In other words, the potential impact between geopolitics and energy industrial countries cannot be ignored.

Looking back, the multilateral trade system promoted the rapid development of Chinese industrial chains. Since joining the WTO, China has played an increasingly important role in international trade and production coordination. China has become deeply involved in a global division of labor. Since 2001, China's global value chain trade (GVC) has grown rapidly and recorded an average of 27. 3 % a year before the 2008 financial crisis. Since 2010, the growth rate has slowed, but the overall rise has not changed. China's reliability has declined, which indicates that the dependence on imported intermediate goods has declined and the status of global value chains is increasing. This reflects China's efforts to invite capital and improve technology to gradually replace the domestic market to the world and gradually replace foreign products in the Kawakami and Kawanaka market with domestic products. The impact of trade rules in the energy field is relatively limited, but industries have played an important role in competition between great powers because of the significant impact on economic systems. As a result, the issues and risks facing the industry may increase. Unlike the other three types of industries, the energy industry was not affected by trade rules in the past, and the impact on both tariffs and no n-tax barriers was limited. When each country concludes a PTA, consideration for the energy industry may not be a major factor. Footnote 35 However, the energy industry is indispensable for economic growth, especially in the European Energy Crisis, which was the end of the Russian and Ukraine disputes. In other words, the potential impact between geopolitics and energy industrial countries cannot be ignored.

Looking back, the multilateral trade system promoted the rapid development of Chinese industrial chains. Since joining the WTO, China has played an increasingly important role in international trade and production coordination. China has become deeply involved in a global division of labor. Since 2001, China's global value chain trade (GVC) has grown rapidly and recorded an average of 27. 3 % a year before the 2008 financial crisis. Since 2010, the growth rate has slowed, but the overall rise has not changed. China's reliability has declined, which indicates that the dependence on imported intermediate goods has declined and the status of global value chains is increasing. This reflects China's efforts to invite capital and improve technology to gradually replace the domestic market to the world and gradually replace foreign products in the Kawakami and Kawanaka market with domestic products. The impact of trade rules in the energy field is relatively limited, but industries play an important role in competition between great powers because of the significant impact on economic systems. As a result, the issues and risks facing the industry may increase. Unlike the other three types of industries, the energy industry was not affected by trade rules in the past, and the impact on both tariffs and no n-tax barriers was limited. When each country concludes a PTA, consideration for the energy industry may not be a major factor. Footnote 35 However, the energy industry is indispensable for economic growth, especially in the European Energy Crisis, which was the end of the Russian and Ukraine disputes. In other words, the potential impact between geopolitics and energy industrial countries cannot be ignored.

Elim Poon - Journalist, Creative Writer

Last modified: 27.08.2024

network of trade routes connecting China to the Eurasian continents, Southeast Asia,. South Asia, Arab-Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean. My. global climate change throughout the industrialized world, and the would evolve if governments make no changes to their existing policies and measures. sented a global but rather traditional demand shock for inter- national trade and global value chains. In the tsunami and earthquake in.

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