Super Bowl Indicator: Premise and History

Specialist trader, investment advisor, and global market strategist.

Updated: August 7, 2024 Reviews Reviews by Anthony Battle

Anthony Battle is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional. He holds the Certified Financial Consultant® credential for advanced financial planning, the Certified Life Underwriter® credential for advanced insurance specialization, the Certified Financial Counselor® credential for financial counseling, and both the Retirement Income Certified Professional® credential and the Certified Retirement Counselor credential for advance planning.

Fact Check Fact Check: Timothy Lee

Timothy Lee is a consultant, accountant, and financial manager with an MBA from USC and over 15 years of experience in corporate finance. Timothy has provided analysis to CEOs and CFOs, delivering the beautiful story behind the numbers, graphs, and financial models.

The Super Bowl is one of the most popular television events in the United States, drawing millions of viewers every year. But it's not just fans who pay attention to this major sporting event. Some investors also follow the Super Bowl to gauge the direction of the stock market using the Super Bowl Index.

The Super Bowl Index is an unscientific barometer of the stock market, suggesting that the outcome of the Super Bowl can predict the direction of the stock market in the coming year. To learn more about the index, its history, and how to predict whether stock prices will rise or fall, read on.

Key Takeaways

• The Super Bowl Index is an unscientific barometer of the stock market.
• It was created in 1978 by sportswriter Leonard Koppett.
• According to the index, if an AFC team wins the Super Bowl, the stock market will be bearish, and if an NFC team wins the Super Bowl, the stock market will be bullish the following year.
• Whether true or not, there is no reason to believe that the outcome of a football game determines the performance of the stock market.

What Is the Super Bowl Indicator?

The idea behind the Super Bowl Index is that if an NFL team from the American Football Conference wins the Super Bowl, it will predict a decline (bear market) in the stock market next year. Meanwhile, a National Football Conference team winning the championship predicts a market upswing or bull market next year.

The Super Bowl indicators are an example of a purely entertainment sports article, not a real market prediction. There is no actual relationship between the football team and the US stock market. In other words, the clear relationship between the two is just a coincidence. What began as an interesting column a few decades ago, at least once a year, has been making new headlines.

History of the Super Bowl Indicator

Leonard Copet, a New York Times sports writer, introduced the Super Bowl Index in 1978. Coppet noticed that the result of the Super Bowl was correlated and the direction of the market had a correlation, and 11 out of 12 games have accurately predicted the direction of the market.

Nevertheless, it is important to note that the indicator of the Super Bowl has nothing to do with the stock market as a means of predicting the stock market. That's because there is no reason to think that the winning or losing of football games will affect the performance of the stock market. But in the last 40 years, people have never stopped talking or writing about super bowls.

How Accurate Is the Super Bowl Indicator?

From 1967 to 2023, it was correct, depending on the index, about 63%to 68%. However, from 2001 to 2023, only about 35 % to 39 % of them were in goodwill.

At one point, the Super Bowl Index boasted a success rate of more than 90 % to predict the results of S & amp; P500 before the Dotcom era (1998-2001). However, the oldest common divisor of "correlation does not mean causal relationships" is applied.

By 2023, measured with the S & AMP; P500 index, the success rate of the index was about 68 %. This index was not so successful. In 2008, the New York Giants (NFC) won the Super Bowl, and despite the fact that it would show a bullish market, the stock market was the largest to decrease since the Great Depression. However, in 2016 and 2017, when AFC's original Denver Broncos and New England Patriotz won the Super Bowl, neither of the falls to fall. The index fell again in 2022, when the market was supposed to rise in the LA Rams' NFC championship, but the S & Amp; P500 fell by nearly 20 % and ended that year. From 2004 to 2023, the index was just six out of 20 times.

An important caveat to this metric for NFL nerds is that the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have won six Super Bowls, the most in the NFL, have been counted as part of the NFC. It doesn't seem to matter that Pittsburgh has won every Super Bowl as an AFC team. Skeptics note that the Steelers have won the Super Bowl 27% of the time since the metric began in the 1978 season, when they won their third title. For this reason, some have suggested that Koppett included the caveat that NFL teams in the AFC are counted as NFC teams. S& P 500 performance in the last 20 Super Bowls

Year played
Team that won	Link	Conference	S& P 500 price return	Prediction	Kansas City Chiefs
2024	AFL	AFC	10. 42% (as of May 2024)	Undecided	Kansas City Chiefs
2023	AFL	AFC	10. 42% (as of May 2024)	Incorrect	Los Angeles Rams
2022	NFL	NFC	-19. 44%	Incorrect	Los Angeles Rams
2021	Nfl	NFC	-19. 44%	Correct	Kansas City Chiefs
2020	AFL	AFC	10. 42% (as of May 2024)	Incorrect	Los Angeles Rams
2019	AFL	AFC	10. 42% (as of May 2024)	Incorrect	Los Angeles Rams
2018	NFL	NFC	-19. 44%	Incorrect	Los Angeles Rams
2017	AFL	AFC	10. 42% (as of May 2024)	Incorrect	Los Angeles Rams
2016	AFL	AFC	10. 42% (as of May 2024)	Incorrect	Los Angeles Rams
2015	AFL	AFC	10. 42% (as of May 2024)	Correct	Kansas City Chiefs
2014	Expansion team	NFC	-19. 44%	Right	Kansas City Chiefs
2013	Expansion team	NFC	10. 42% (as of May 2024)	Incorrect	Los Angeles Rams
2012	Nfl	NFC	-19. 44%	Correct	Kansas City Chiefs
2011	Nfl	NFC	-19. 44%	Incorrect	Los Angeles Rams
2010	Nfl	NFC	-19. 44%	Correct	Kansas City Chiefs
2009	Nfl	NFC	10. 42% (as of May 2024)	Right	Kansas City Chiefs
2008	Nfl	NFC	-19. 44%	Incorrect	Los Angeles Rams
2007	Nfl	NFC	10. 42% (as of May 2024)	Incorrect	Los Angeles Rams
2006	Nfl	NFC	10. 42% (as of May 2024)	Incorrect	Los Angeles Rams
2005	AFL	AFC	10. 42% (as of May 2024)	Incorrect	Los Angeles Rams
2004	AFL	AFC	10. 42% (as of May 2024)	Incorrect	Los Angeles Rams

What Does the Super Bowl Indicator Predict?

When measured with the S & amp; P500 index, the success rate up to 2023 is about 68 %. It is not yet known whether there is a correlation between the leading confrontation between the Super Bowl LVIII winner and the San Francisco 49ers, the winner of the Super Bowl LVIII, which will be held in February 2024.

How Often Is the Super Bowl Indicator Correct?

New York Times sports caster Leonard Copet introduced the Super Bowl in 1978. At that time, this index was always correct. However, the analysis of Coppet rely on the team to classify the team based on the original football league, rather than the conference to win.

Who Came Up With the Super Bowl Indicator?

Super Bowl indicators suggest that NFL's annual championships predict the performance of the stock market of the year. If the National Football Conference (NFC) team wins in the Super Bowl, the market will rise that year, and if the American football conference team wins, it will fall. Since the first Super Bowl, the index success rate has reached about 70 %, but the clear correlation between the Super Bowl and the market is a coincidence, not scientific fact. In fact, the reliability of the index in recent decades is not so high. < SPAN> S & Amp; P500 Expode is measured, the success rate up to 2023 is about 68 %. It is not yet known whether there is a correlation between the leading confrontation between the Super Bowl LVIII winner and the San Francisco 49ers, the winner of the Super Bowl LVIII, which will be held in February 2024.

The Bottom Line

New York Times sports caster Leonard Copet introduced the Super Bowl in 1978. At that time, this index was always correct. However, the analysis of Coppet rely on the team to classify the team based on the original football league, rather than the conference to win.